Foreign Agencies Improve Brazil’s GDP Forecasts for 2016/2017

By Lise Alves, Senior Contributing Reporter

SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL – Despite continuing economic turbulence, some foreign financial organizations are starting to register improvements in Brazil’s economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), for example, has revised its forecast for economic contraction in 2016 from 4.3 percent (June) to 3.3 percent. Earlier in the year, other organizations also improved Brazil’s economic outlook for the rest of 2016 and 2017.

“Despite some improvements, Brazil’s economy continues experiencing a deep recession and is expected to shrink by 3.3 percent this year and a further 0.3 percent in 2017,” said the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook, released on Wednesday, September 21st.

In July, after five downward revisions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its negative outlook forecast for the country’s GDP in 2016, from 3.8 percent in April to 3.3 percent. The international entity also forecast a mild growth in 2017 from zero growth in its April report to 0.5 percent in the July estimate.

The less pessimistic outlooks are in line with what economic analysts in Brazil are forecasting. The latest Focus Report, a weekly survey conducted by the country’s Central Bank, with forecasts from more than one hundred financial institutions, shows that economists believe that the country’s GDP will close with a retraction of 3.15 percent in 2016. Four weeks ago the forecast was of a retraction of 3.20 percent.

The Focus Report also showed an improvement in forecasts for next year, with economists surveyed increasing their estimate of GDP growth next year from 1.20 percent in mid-August to 1.36 percent in the latest forecast.