ARGENTINA · MARKETS
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, a large South American economy, has kept its peso steady against the dollar this year while local interest rates stayed high.
- —Why it matters The carry trade is the clearest test of what that calm has paid, and what a change in it could cost, for anyone holding Argentine assets from the United States.
- —Why now Fresh figures published on 16 and 17 October 2026 show the trade near 20% in dollars, with the peso at 1,514.57 per dollar on Friday 16 October.
- —What happened The carry trade returned 19.3% in dollars so far in 2026, third among emerging-market currencies behind Colombia at about 30% and Brazil at about 20%.
- —The numbers Peso interest earned about 22%, the dollar rose about 4% and consumer prices rose 23.6%, so the peso gained strength in real terms.
- —What it means for you US investors see what a steady peso paid in 2026. Visitors find prices that rose faster than the exchange rate.
- —Still open Whether the peso stays calm as the 2027 election campaign approaches, and whether the central bank keeps buying dollars.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives a 52.5% chance that the official peso rate ends 2026 below 1,600 per dollar (18 October, 2:40 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
The Argentina carry trade has returned 19.3% in dollars so far in 2026, the research firm Delphos Investment calculated. Argentine newspapers published the figure on Friday 16 and Saturday 17 October 2026.
For a US investor the trade means selling dollars for pesos, earning local interest and buying dollars back later. The profit disappears if the peso falls faster than the interest pays.
Delphos ranks Argentina third among emerging-market currencies, behind Colombia at about 30% and Brazil at about 20%. We covered this trade in April in Argentine Peso Best in Class: #1 EM Carry Trade While Iran War Sinks Currencies.
How the Argentina Carry Trade Reached 19.3%
A carry trade has three steps: sell dollars, put the pesos into an interest-bearing instrument, and later buy dollars back. If the peso stays steady, most of the interest becomes profit in dollars.
Delphos says peso interest added up to about 22% this year while the exchange rate rose only about 4%. El Cronista and iProfesional both published those figures, with the 19.3% return.
The central bank’s wholesale reference rate was 1,459.42 per dollar on 30 December 2025. By 16 October 2026 it was 1,514.57, a rise of 3.8% that matches the 4% Delphos cites.
The central bank’s BADLAR benchmark for large private-bank term deposits was 23.125% a year on 15 October. That shows the scale of the interest on offer to anyone holding pesos.
Consumer prices rose 23.6% over the same stretch, according to the figure El Cronista quoted from Delphos. That matches the roughly 23.7% that INDEC’s monthly rates, as listed by the central bank, compound to for January to September.
Because prices rose far faster than the dollar, the peso gained strength in real terms. Delphos puts the fall in the real exchange rate against the dollar at 13.2%, El Cronista reported.
iProfesional compared the gain with other yields, calling it more than five times US annual inflation. It added that the return is almost three times a top Argentine company’s dollar bond yield and about four times a US Treasury yield.
Those comparisons carry very different risks, as iProfesional itself noted. A dollar bond pays in dollars, while the carry trade depends on the peso holding its value against them.
Where Argentina Ranks Among Emerging Markets
Delphos’s list has Colombia first at about 30%, Brazil second at about 20% and Argentina third at about 19%. Turkey follows at 16%, South Korea at 10% and Russia at 7%.
Mexico’s peso is on the list at about 3%, while Chile’s peso lost about 6% in dollar terms. Poland, Romania, Thailand, the Czech Republic and the Philippines also show losses, iProfesional reported.
Brazil, second on the list, holds its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October, as our guide Brazil Election 2026: Lula vs Flávio Runoff on 25 October explains. Election outcomes can move currencies, so carry-trade returns there carry event risk.
iProfesional attributes the Brazilian and Colombian returns to market-friendly election results. Brazil’s runoff is still a week away, so we do not repeat that explanation.
What Analysts Expect Next
Delphos does not expect exchange-rate pressure that would justify a large rise in interest rates, El Cronista reported. It points to a central bank that wants more reserves before the election year, and reserves stood at US$49.7 billion on 14 October.
Farm exporters have sold US$22.3 billion of a projected US$34 billion in 2026, according to Delphos. That leaves an average near US$4 billion a month for the last quarter, above the usual pace.
The December dollar futures contract trades at 1,583 per dollar, about 4.6% above the spot rate iProfesional quoted. The same report cites a median year-end forecast of 1,613 per dollar in the central bank’s market expectations survey.
Adviser Gustavo Ber told iProfesional that calm in the exchange rate and faster central-bank purchases have renewed interest in the trade. Analyst Pedro Siaba said he prefers peso strategies to dollar sovereign bonds for the next three or four months.
Next year looks different, iProfesional wrote, because election uncertainty in 2027 could put pressure on the peso. Some investors are already moving into dollar assets, while others take the remaining margin.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket gives a 52.5% chance that the official peso rate ends 2026 below 1,600 per dollar (18 October, 2:40 a.m. ET). It gives 33% for 1,600 to 1,699.99 and 5.4% for 2,000 or higher, so some traders price a weaker peso.
The higher-bracket group has about US$22,700 in volume traded, and a companion group of lower brackets about US$12,000. These are thin markets, so the prices are bets and not forecasts or polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For US investors, the result shows what a steady peso paid in 2026. The same trade loses money if the peso weakens sharply, which our report Argentina Devaluation Would Test US$49.7bn examines.
Visitors and residents sit on the other side of the trade, because prices rose about 23.6% while the dollar rose about 4%. By our arithmetic a typical basket costs roughly 19% more in dollars than in January.
For background on the exchange-rate band the peso trades within, read Argentina Peso Holds 21% Below Its Ceiling on 5 October. Our Buenos Aires expat city guide, Argentina Natural Resources Explained 2026 and Who Dominates Argentina, Elites and Regions Explained cover living costs and the economy behind the currency.
What Is Not Known
We could not open Delphos’s own report, and both newspapers draw on it. The 19.3% return and the ranking therefore rest on one research firm.
The rounded inputs the reports quote, about 22% interest and a 4% rise in the dollar, would give nearer 17% than 19.3%. The reports name no instruments or dates and do not explain the gap, which may reflect compounding or timing.
The ranking covers emerging-market currencies, not every country in the world. El Cronista describes Argentina only as one of the highest-yielding emerging markets.
We could not open the central bank’s survey table to confirm the 1,613 per dollar year-end median. Where the peso trades once the 2027 election campaign begins is also not known.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Argentina carry trade?
Investors sell dollars, earn interest in pesos and later buy dollars back. They profit if the interest outweighs any fall in the peso.
How much has the Argentina carry trade earned in 2026?
Delphos Investment puts the return at 19.3% in dollars so far in 2026. Newspapers published the figure on 16 and 17 October.
Where does Argentina rank among emerging markets?
Argentina is third in the Delphos list reported by iProfesional, behind Colombia and Brazil. El Cronista calls it one of the highest returns among emerging markets.
Is the carry trade guaranteed to keep paying?
No, because a sharp fall in the peso would erase the interest. Analysts quoted expect calm in the coming months and more risk in 2027.
What does it mean for US readers?
US investors can see what a steady peso paid in 2026 and what a weaker one would cost. Visitors face prices that rose faster than the exchange rate.
Sources: iProfesional, 17 October 2026; El Cronista, 16 October 2026; Central Bank of Argentina, reference exchange rate series, to 16 October 2026; Central Bank of Argentina, market expectations survey (REM), September 2026; INDEC, statistics office of Argentina.
In depth
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error