Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — October 1, 2026
Key Facts
- Argentina’s S&P Merval rose 1.32% to 2,819,323 points on Wednesday, 30 September, its first gain after eight straight losses, led by banks, utilities and industrial shares
- September still ended 7.1% lower, and about 7.6% lower in US-dollar terms; the index is 16.6% below its 52-week closing high of 3,379,772 from 22 July
- The peso firmed: the official wholesale dollar fell 5 pesos, or 0.3%, to 1,517 per US dollar, and the central bank bought US$160 million, its largest purchase of the month
- Bonds rose 0.5% on average and country risk eased 2 points to 607, still above the 600 mark and up 95 points over September
- President Javier Milei addressed the IDEA business conference by video from Paris, asking executives for patience ahead of the 2027 elections
Today’s Focus
Argentina’s S&P Merval, the benchmark share index, rose 1.32% to 2,819,323 points on Wednesday, 30 September. It ended an eight-session losing streak that had taken the index to its lowest close since 19 May.
Banks led the rebound. BBVA Argentina rose 2.74%, Supervielle 2.38% and Banco Macro 1.59%. Gas distributor MetroGAS gained 4.89% and power-grid operator Transener 3.94%.
The peso firmed slightly. The official wholesale dollar fell 5 pesos to 1,517 per US dollar, and the central bank, the BCRA, bought US$160 million.
Dollar bonds rose about 0.5% on average, and JP Morgan’s country-risk gauge eased 2 points to 607 basis points.
What matters today. Stocks found buyers on the last day of a bad month, but country risk is still above 600 and gross reserves fell by US$1.39 billion.
01 The session in one read
Argentina’s S&P Merval, the benchmark index that tracks Buenos Aires’ largest listed companies, rose 1.32% on Wednesday to close at 2,819,323 points. That snapped a run of eight losing sessions.
The bounce came on the last trading day of a poor month. The Merval lost 7.1% in September and 11.0% in the third quarter. It is 7.6% lower than at the end of 2025.
The peso was firmer. The official wholesale rate closed at 1,517 per US dollar, down 0.3% on the day, after rising 0.6% over September. The informal “blue” dollar was unchanged at 1,560 pesos per US dollar.
Wall Street offered little help. The S&P 500 slipped 0.25% and the US ten-year Treasury yield rose to 5.29%. Local buying in banks and utilities carried the session.
This looks like a relief bounce after a long slide rather than a change of trend. The Merval fell for eight sessions in a row and lost about 9.1% over that streak.
Bonds and the currency were calm, which helped. But country risk, at 607 basis points, is still about 95 points higher than at the start of September.
Gross reserves fell US$1.39 billion to US$46.09 billion even though the BCRA bought dollars. The key variable is whether country risk falls below 600; without that, rallies in Argentine shares are likely to stay short.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval (Argentina) | 2,819,323 | +1.32% | First gain in nine sessions |
| Merval in September | −7.1% | −11.0% Q3 | About −7.6% in US-dollar terms |
| USD/ARS (official wholesale) | 1,517 | −0.3% | Peso firmer; +0.6% for the dollar in September |
| Country risk (JP Morgan) | 607 bp | −2 bp | Still above 600; +95 bp in September |
| BCRA reserves (gross) | US$46.09bn | −US$1.39bn | Despite US$160m in purchases |
| US 10-year yield | 5.29% | +4 bp | High US rates weigh on emerging markets |
The Merval’s gain of about 36,800 points was its first since 17 September. Tuesday’s close had been the lowest since 19 May, and the index remains 16.6% under its 22 July peak.
The regional tone was mixed. Brazil’s Ibovespa gained 1.37%, while Mexico’s IPC fell 1.38% and Chile’s IPSA 0.78%.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
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Argentina — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,767,663 | +0.32% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
03 Why it moved: bargain hunting at month-end
Argentina’s most liquid bank shares had fallen for eight straight sessions, so Wednesday’s buying looked like investors picking up beaten-down names on the last day of the month.
In New York, Argentine bank ADRs also rose. BBVA Argentina gained 2.47%, Supervielle 2.16% and Banco Macro 1.33%, while software firm Globant added 2.24%. Over September, bank ADRs had lost 15% to 18% in dollar terms.
Calmer bonds and a firmer peso helped. The BCRA’s US$160 million purchase was its largest of September, though the month’s total of US$473 million was the lowest of 2026.
YPF, the state-controlled energy company, slipped 0.18% in Buenos Aires and 0.36% in New York. Wednesday was the deadline for the plaintiffs in the expropriation case, backed by litigation funder Burford Capital, to ask the US Supreme Court to review a March appeals-court ruling. That ruling overturned a 2023 judgment of US$16.1 billion against Argentina. By Wednesday it was not publicly confirmed whether a petition had been filed.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| MetroGAS (METR) | Gas distribution | +4.89% | Biggest gain among leading shares |
| Transener (TRAN) | Power transmission | +3.94% | Utilities extended gains |
| Ternium Argentina (TXAR) | Steel | +3.32% | Industrials rebounded |
| BBVA Argentina (BBAR) | Banking | +2.74% | Strongest bank gain |
| Supervielle (SUPV) / Banco Macro (BMA) | Banking | +2.38% / +1.59% | Banks rebounded together |
| Grupo Galicia (GGAL) | Banking | +0.83% | Lagged other banks |
| Cresud (CRES) | Agriculture and property | −1.06% | One of the few decliners |
| YPF (YPFD) | Oil and gas | −0.18% | Court deadline in focus |
The pattern was broad. Banks, utilities and industrial shares such as Aluar, up 2.80%, and Ternium Argentina, up 3.32%, all rose.
Losers were few. Farmland and property group Cresud fell 1.06%, YPF 0.18% and Grupo Financiero Valores 0.09%. In New York, oil producer Vista Energy fell 2.04%.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Merval | Argentina | +1.32% |
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +1.37% |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | −1.38% |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | −0.78% |
| MSCI COLCAP | Colombia | −0.38% |
Argentina and Brazil were the two big Latin American markets that rose on Wednesday, by almost the same amount: the Ibovespa added 1.37% and the Merval 1.32%.
Mexico was the weakest, with the IPC down 1.38% as the peso stayed weak. Chile’s IPSA fell 0.78% after poor local data, and Colombia’s COLCAP slipped 0.38% after a surprise rate rise.
06 The technical picture
The Merval’s close of 2,819,323 is just above Tuesday’s 2,782,561, the lowest close since 19 May. That level is now the first support.
On the upside, the 3,000,000 mark is the obvious test. The index last closed above it on 18 September. The 52-week closing high is 3,379,772, from 22 July.
For the peso, the official wholesale rate has stayed close to 1,520 per US dollar in recent days. A move well above that would signal fresh pressure on the currency.
07 Wednesday’s data, one by one
Our previous edition told readers to watch Milei at the IDEA conference, whether country risk would fall below 600, the month-end close and US data. There were no major scheduled Argentine data releases on Wednesday.
- Milei at IDEA: the President spoke by video from Paris on Wednesday evening, after the market closed, at the business conference in Mar del Plata. He asked executives for “patience” and framed the 2027 elections as a choice about the country’s economic course.
- Country risk: it eased 2 points to 607 basis points, so it did not fall below 600. Over September it rose 95 points.
- Month-end: the Merval rose 1.32% on the day but lost 7.1% in September, or about 7.6% in US-dollar terms. Bonds lost about 5% over the month.
- Central bank: the BCRA bought US$160 million, its largest daily purchase of September, but gross reserves fell US$1.39 billion to US$46.09 billion.
- US data: ADP payrolls rose 90,000, above forecasts; core PCE inflation was 3.0%, below the 3.3% expected; second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2%; and the Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8. The US ten-year yield rose to 5.29%, but Argentine assets still gained.
- YPF case: the deadline for the plaintiffs to seek a US Supreme Court review passed on Wednesday; whether a petition was filed was not confirmed.
08 What to watch
- Country risk below 600: a drop under that mark would confirm that foreign appetite for Argentine debt is returning.
- September tax revenue (20:00 UTC): the monthly collection figure is a gauge of economic activity and of the fiscal surplus.
- IDEA conference: the business meeting in Mar del Plata runs until 2 October, with more government officials and executives due to speak.
- YPF case: whether the plaintiffs confirm a Supreme Court petition.
- US ISM manufacturing (14:00 UTC): forecast at 55; a strong reading would keep US yields high.
Background: Merval Falls 1.29% as Argentine ADRs Slide Across Latin America.
Merval — More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Merval?
It is Argentina’s benchmark stock-market index, tracking the largest and most-traded companies listed on the Buenos Aires exchange.
Why did Argentina’s stock market rise on Wednesday?
Investors bought beaten-down bank and utility shares after eight straight losing sessions. The Merval rose 1.32% to 2,819,323, though it still lost 7.1% in September.
What happened to the peso?
The official wholesale dollar fell 0.3% to 1,517 pesos per US dollar, and the central bank bought US$160 million. Gross reserves still fell US$1.39 billion to US$46.09 billion.
What is country risk?
It is JP Morgan’s measure of the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine dollar bonds instead of US Treasuries. At 607 basis points, it means about 6.07 percentage points more.
Source: RT live market data, close of Wednesday 30 September 2026; exchange figures from BYMA; exchange rate and reserves from the BCRA.
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