Lula’s Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro Has Halved in Five Weeks
Politics: Brazil
Key Facts
—Where the race stands. Datafolha on 21 August put Lula on 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 33%.
—How fast it is closing. Lula led by 12 points in mid-July. Quaest now has seven, Datafolha six.
—The catch: Quaest’s 14 August runoff was 43% to 40% — a tie inside the margin of error.
—Who is running. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has his father’s endorsement. Jair Bolsonaro is jailed and barred.
—The calendar. Campaigning became legal on 16 August. The first round is 4 October.
—What comes next. Free radio and television airtime starts on 28 August, the next real test.
Brazil’s presidential campaign became legal on 16 August with a rematch that isn’t one: Lula seeks a fourth term at 80, Jair Bolsonaro is ineligible and in prison, and his son Flávio inherits a movement — and a deficit that is closing fast.
The Field Is Set — and It Starts Now
Under Brazil’s electoral calendar, candidates had to file by 7pm on 15 August, and campaigning became legal the following day running to October 3. Some 158.7 million voters go to the polls on October 4, with a runoff on 25 October, three weeks later, if no one wins more than half the valid votes — blank and spoiled ballots are excluded from that count.
The headline names were settled months ago. Lula da Silva, president from 2003 to 2011 and again since 2023, runs for a fourth term at 80. Across from him stands not Jair Bolsonaro — ruled ineligible by the electoral court and convicted in September 2025 over a coup plot and jailed since November — but his eldest son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, endorsed by his father to carry the family’s far-right banner.
Behind the two poles sit former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema (Novo), former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), and Renan Santos of the Missão party, an anti-establishment outsider who polls best of the non-polarised candidates among the young.
What the Polls Say as the Campaign Opens
The most recent read is Datafolha, published on Friday 21 August: fieldwork 18–20 August, 2,058 respondents, a two-point margin of error. It put Lula on 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 33% in the first round, with Caiado on 5%, Renan Santos on 4% and Zema on 3%. In a runoff it had Lula ahead 47% to 43%. Quaest, a week earlier, was tighter still. Its 14 August wave — fieldwork 10–13 August, 2,004 respondents, two-point margin — gave Lula 38% to Flávio’s 31%, and a runoff of 43% to 40%. That is a statistical tie: the three-point gap sits inside the margin of error. Both are a long way from where the race stood a month ago. On 15 July, Quaest had Lula on 40% and Flávio on 28% — a 12-point first-round lead, and the first time in the cycle that approval ran above disapproval for the president. The gap has since gone 12 points, then nine, then seven, then six.
A month earlier, the June 5–8 Quaest wave had the runoff matchups: Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 44% to 38%, Zema 45% to 35%, Caiado 45% to 35% and Santos 45% to 31%. In February, the same pollster still found Flávio isolated in second place with 29% to 33% in first-round scenarios — a ceiling he has struggled to raise since.
The direction matters more than any single number. Lula is still ahead in every published scenario, but the lead has halved in five weeks, and the runoff is now inside the error bars. The opposition no longer needs volatility to make this a race; it needs the trend to hold.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s Difficult Inheritance
The younger Bolsonaro consolidated the right quickly after his father’s endorsement, but May proved costly. Intercept Brasil published audio and messages on 13 May showing him pressing Daniel Vorcaro — the Banco Master owner now jailed over an alleged multibillion-real fraud — to release the balance of a US$24 million sponsorship for a film about his father. About US$10.6 million had already been paid. A public feud with stepmother Michelle Bolsonaro, who accused him of sidelining her, followed before the two reconciled.
The damage shows in the data: July’s Quaest put his rejection at 57%, and he fell from 84% to 74% between March and July among right-leaning voters who do not identify as bolsonaristas — the hard core of his father’s following — precisely the electorate he needs to expand beyond the family base.
Why Lula’s Numbers Improved
Pollsters attribute the president’s mid-2026 rebound to kitchen-table economics: the income-tax relief that zeroes the bill on monthly earnings up to R$5,000 (about US$970 at the 21 August rate of 5.1625 reais to the dollar), in force since January, and the Novo Desenrola debt-renegotiation programme, relaunched by decree on 4 May 2026 have begun registering with voters, according to analysis of the July survey.
The risk for the incumbent is the mirror of his strength: at 80, with rejection still above 50% in earlier waves, any health scare or economic reversal compresses the race fast. Brazil’s campaigns are famously volatile once free TV time and debates begin.
What to Watch Between Now and October 4
Three markers will define the sprint: whether Flávio Bolsonaro’s rejection stabilizes below the mid-50s, whether Zema or Caiado can consolidate a third-way vote large enough to force their way into a runoff conversation, and whether Renan Santos, who runs third among under-35s rather than first, converts attention into turnout.
The bottom line: Lula still leads, but by half what he led by in July, and the runoff is now a coin toss. Free radio and television airtime opens on 28 August and runs to 1 October — six weeks that have upended Brazilian races before.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the main candidates in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
President Lula da Silva (PT) seeks a fourth term. His main challenger is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), son of the ineligible and imprisoned ex-president. Former governors Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), and Renan Santos of the Missão party, round out the field. Registration closed on 15 August 2026 and campaigning became legal the next day.
Can Jair Bolsonaro run in 2026?
No. He was ruled ineligible by the Superior Electoral Court and was convicted in September 2025 over a coup plot and has been jailed since November. He endorsed his son Flávio to carry the family’s candidacy for the Liberal Party.
Who is leading the polls for Brazil’s election?
Lula leads every scenario. July’s Genial/Quaest poll (fieldwork July 10–13, 2026) gave him a 12-point first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro; June runoff simulations showed him ahead 44%–38%. The first round is October 4, 2026.
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Sources: AS/COA; Genial/Quaest polls via Brasil 247, Vero Notícias and Times Brasil.
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