Brazil Election Results 2026: Live Updates, Vote Count and Runoff Scenarios
Brazil Election 2026: Live Results
- Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0% · Lula 45.2% · 100.0% of polling stations counted
No candidate has more than 50% of valid votes so far. On these numbers Brazil heads for a runoff on October 25 between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
- Brazil Senate Passes 5-Day Week, 75 to 1
Brazil's Senate voted 75 to 1 on 14 October to end the 6x1 work week, giving workers two paid rest days ahead of the 25 October presidential runoff.
- Quaest Poll Puts Flávio at 46%, Lula at 44%
Quaest poll: Flávio Bolsonaro 46%, Lula 44% in Brazil's runoff, a tie within the margin of error, while bettors still give Flávio an 85% chance of winning.
- Lula's Public Security Ministry Pledge and the Runoff
Lula promises a public security ministry once the Senate passes his amendment. The text cleared committee on 14 October, 11 days before the runoff.
- Brazil Court Clears Vorcaro Ads 12 Days Out
Brazil's electoral court cleared ads tying Flávio Bolsonaro to banker Daniel Vorcaro on 13 October, but kept a ban on calling him part of organised crime.
- Brazil Court Halts 30,000 Union Newspapers
A Brazilian election judge stopped a union newspaper that warned Flávio Bolsonaro would sell Petrobras; the union wants the ban lifted before 25 October.
- Brazil Holds Six Governor Runoffs 25 October
Five states and the Federal District choose governors in runoffs on 25 October, while Rio de Janeiro skips its vote after Douglas Ruas was confirmed.
- Who Leads Brazil's Runoff 11 Days Out
Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Lula by 52% to 48% in the latest wave of four major pollsters, with a new Quaest poll due on 14 October.
- Brazil Court Orders Pro-Lula AI Video Pulled
A Brazilian election judge ordered the government's top lawyer to delete a pro-Lula AI video within 24 hours because it carried no AI label.
- Meta Denies Bias Against Lula in Brazil Race
Meta told Brazil's election court that claims it boosted Flávio Bolsonaro over Lula are false and blamed technical faults, with the runoff on 25 October.
- Brazil Runoff Polls 2026: Every Lula vs Flávio Survey
Every national poll on Brazil's 25 October runoff, newest first, with our average, the trend, the first-round record and what bettors expect.
- Lula vs Flávio: Where They Stand on 7 Issues
Brazil's 25 October runoff pits Lula's plan to keep the fiscal rule against Flávio Bolsonaro's tax cuts and privatisations, and splits them on Trump's tariffs.
- Brazil Runoff Debates: Dates, Channels and Who Shows Up
Band holds its Brazil runoff debate on Sunday 18 October at 7 p.m. US Eastern without Flávio Bolsonaro, who is still weighing Globo's 23 October debate.
Federal Senate · 81 seats
Chamber of Deputies · 513 seats
- Sunday, 7 a.m. ETPolls open (8 a.m. Brasília, 12:00 Lisbon).
- Sunday, 4 p.m. ETPolls close (5 p.m. Brasília, 21:00 Lisbon). The TSE starts publishing the official count.
- Sunday eveningIn 2022 about 97% of the vote was counted by roughly 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (8:30 p.m. ET).
- Sunday, October 25Runoff for president, and for governor in states where no candidate passed 50% of valid votes.
- January 5 and 6, 2027The president takes office on January 5, the governors on January 6.
- President and governorsmore than 50% of valid votes, else a runoff
- Senate54 of 81 seats, two per state, no runoff
- Blank and null ballotsdo not count toward 50%
- Votingcompulsory, electronic machines
Every presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff.
Choose a state
Tap any state for its voters, economy and export markets, its governor and Senate races, the 2022 results and the live count.
Change against 2022 compares the gap between Lula and the Bolsonaro candidate with the 2022 first round (Lula against Jair Bolsonaro). Tap a column to sort.
Brazil has about 30 parties, and their names can mislead: the Liberal Party (PL) is the main party of the right, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is centre-right. Several mid-sized parties form the Centrão (“big centre”), a loose bloc without a single leader that trades its votes in Congress for posts and budget money and has backed governments of left and right.
Sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), official results (resultados.tse.jus.br), candidate lists and the 2022 results by state (TSE open data, votes by municipality); IBGE (state boundaries, 2025 population estimate, regional GDP); Comex Stat, Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (exports 2025); polling institutes as named; Senate (inauguration dates). Percentages are shares of valid votes, as the TSE reports them. The Rio Times does not call races: a winner or a runoff is shown only once the TSE declares it.
Updated 6 times · Latest: 5 October 2026
Brazil · Elections · Key Facts
- First results: Overseas polling stations reported first. Flávio Bolsonaro won Japan with 71.7% and Lula led Berlin and Porto; by about 3:50 p.m. Brasília, Revista Fórum counted Lula on 53.1% and Flávio on 37.2% abroad. These press tallies cover about 0.6% of voters and are not a forecast.
- The vote: Brazil elects a president, 27 governors, 54 of its 81 senators and the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies on Sunday, October 4. Polls closed at 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Brasília). About 158.7 million people are registered to vote (TSE, July).
- The rule: A candidate needs more than 50% of valid votes to win outright. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25. Every presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff.
- The polls: The last Datafolha and Quaest polls (published October 3) had Flávio Bolsonaro on 42% and 45% of valid votes and Lula on 45% and 46%. Flávio finished 5 and 2 points above them; Lula, on 45.16%, landed within a point of both.
- The count: With every polling station counted (TSE data as of 1:58 a.m. ET on October 5), Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.03% of valid votes (56.10 million) and Lula 45.16% (53.88 million). No one passed 50%, so the runoff is on October 25. Turnout was 78.92%, against 79.05% in the 2022 first round.
- The baseline: In the 2022 first round Lula had 48.43% and Jair Bolsonaro 43.20%; Lula won the runoff with 50.90% (TSE). Lula is now 3.3 points below his 2022 first round, and Flávio 3.8 points above his father’s.
- Why Americans care: US tariffs of up to 37.5% hit Brazilian goods, and the winner sets Brazil’s course between Washington and Beijing. The EWZ fund, which tracks Brazilian shares in New York, rose 10.29% overnight; Brazil’s B3 exchange opens at 9 a.m. ET.
Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, voted on Sunday, October 4, and the presidential race goes to a runoff. With every polling station counted, the electoral court (TSE) has Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, on 47.03% of valid votes and President Lula on 45.16%. Neither passed 50%, so the two meet again on Sunday, October 25.
This page carries the official TSE count: the national result, all 27 states, the governor and Senate races, turnout and what the numbers mean for the runoff. The results center above updates by itself every few minutes. Tap a state on the map for its voters, its economy and its export markets, and compare every state with 2022. For the stakes in plain English, read our analysis before the vote.
Live Results, October 4, 2026
Official TSE count: 99.99% of polling stations counted, as of 23:50 BRT (22:50 ET, 03:50 Lisbon).
No candidate has more than 50% of valid votes so far. On these numbers Brazil heads for a runoff on October 25 between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Valid votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | PL | 56,104,049 | 47.03% |
| Lula | PT | 53,876,219 | 45.16% |
| Augusto Cury | AVANTE | 3,448,537 | 2.89% |
| Renan Santos | MISSÃO | 2,675,878 | 2.24% |
| Ronaldo Caiado | PSD | 2,605,118 | 2.18% |
| Romeu Zema | NOVO | 326,486 | 0.27% |
| Others | 260,652 |
Turnout 78.92%, abstention 21.08%. Source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), resultados.tse.jus.br. This box updates automatically every 5 minutes during the count; analysis follows below.
3:11 a.m. ET (4:11 a.m. Brasília): The count is complete. According to the TSE (data as of 1:58 a.m. ET), Flávio Bolsonaro finished with 47.03% of valid votes (56,104,503) and Lula with 45.16% (53,879,538), a gap of 1.87 points or about 2.2 million votes. Augusto Cury has 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.18% and Romeu Zema 0.27%. No candidate passed 50%, so Brazil holds a runoff on Sunday, October 25.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, finished 3.8 points and 5.0 million votes above his father’s 2022 first round (43.20%, 51.07 million votes). Lula finished 3.3 points and 3.4 million votes below his own 2022 first round (48.43%, 57.26 million), according to the TSE. The result also beat the last polls: Datafolha had Flávio on 42% of valid votes and Quaest on 45%.
Flávio won 15 of the 27 electoral units (26 states and the Federal District), including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the three largest electorates. Lula won 12, among them all nine Northeast states plus Amazonas, Amapá and Pará.
In New York, the EWZ fund, which tracks Brazilian shares, rose 10.29% to US$42.12 in overnight trading at 9:31 p.m. ET on Sunday (Exame). Exame cautions that the move may not carry over to the Ibovespa when Brazil’s B3 exchange opens at 10 a.m. Brasília (9 a.m. ET) on Monday.
7:31 p.m. ET (8:31 p.m. Brasília): With 91.61% of polling stations counted, Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.93% of valid votes (52,153,453) and Lula 44.11% (47,999,342), according to the TSE. Augusto Cury has 2.93%, Renan Santos 2.29%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.24% and Romeu Zema 0.28%. No candidate is above 50%.
On our arithmetic from the TSE figures, Lula cannot realistically reach 50%: even every remaining valid vote, an estimated 10.5 million, would leave him near 49%. Flávio would need about 71% to 72% of them. The TSE has not yet declared a runoff, which would be held on Sunday, October 25.
The lead is shrinking as the Northeast reports. Flávio led by 7.3 points when about 65% was counted at 7:25 p.m. Brasília (dgabc.com.br); the gap is now 3.8 points. Bahia is 78.7% counted, Ceará 80.9% and Alagoas 74.3%, and Lula leads all three. In São Paulo, 95.4% counted, Flávio has 51.99% against Jair Bolsonaro’s 47.71% in the 2022 first round, while Lula’s 38.13% compares with 40.89% then (TSE).
First Results: Votes From Abroad
Brazilians living abroad voted first, and their polling-station tallies (boletins de urna) were summed by Brazilian media hours before any official count. Flávio Bolsonaro won Japan with 71.7% of valid votes, according to O Tempo, while Lula led in Berlin with 83.02% (CartaCapital) and in Porto with 52.50% to 38.32% (CNN Portugal).
By about 3:50 p.m. Brasília time (6:50 p.m. Lisbon), with 661 of 1,282 overseas ballot boxes from 54 countries counted, Revista Fórum had Lula on 53.1% and Flávio on 37.2% abroad. Lisbon, the largest overseas city, had not been reported in the sources we checked.
This is not a forecast. Brazilians abroad are about 0.6% of the electorate, those who vote are mostly people near a consulate, and one country can dominate the early sums. The numbers come from the press, not from the TSE, and can change.
The TSE began publishing the official count at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET, 9 p.m. Lisbon). Read the full breakdown: Flávio Wins Japan as Lula Leads Berlin and Porto.
The official count of the TSE appears in the box above and updates every few minutes. Brazil votes on electronic machines, so the count is fast: a clear national picture usually emerges within a few hours. The Rio Times does not call races; a winner or a runoff is reported once the TSE declares it.
What to Watch on Election Night
The 50% line. Lula avoids a runoff only with more than half of valid votes. Datafolha puts him at 45% and Quaest at 46%, so a first-round win would need a polling miss in his favour.
The Southeast decides. São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo hold 41.8% of the electorate. Datafolha’s state polls show Flávio ahead in a runoff in São Paulo (48% to 45%) and Rio de Janeiro (51% to 42%), and Lula ahead in Minas Gerais (48% to 44%).
North against South. In the 2022 first round Lula led all nine Northeast states, by up to 54 points in Piauí, and Jair Bolsonaro led all three southern states (TSE). The state table above shows each state’s 2022 result, so you can see on Sunday night where the map is moving.
The governors. Tarcísio de Freitas leads São Paulo with 50% against 33% for Fernando Haddad (Datafolha). Pernambuco (46% to 44%) and Ceará (49% to 47.6%) are close. Governors also need more than 50%, or they face a runoff on October 25.
The Senate. Voters fill 54 of the 81 seats, two per state, with no runoff. Only the Senate can try and remove Supreme Court justices, and conviction needs 54 votes, which is why the right wants a big result. The PL has been the largest Senate party since January, with 15 senators (Agência Senado).
Markets. The real closed at R$5.2223 per US$ on Friday, October 2 (EODHD). A first-round decision and a tight race heading for a runoff would price very differently on Monday; follow our markets coverage.
The Final Polls
At least nine national surveys appeared between September 28 and October 3, and the results center above lists them all. They agree on the shape of the race: Lula ahead or level in the first round, no one near 50% of valid votes, and a runoff within the margin of error. Pollsters reach voters in person, by phone, online or by automated calls, which is why their numbers differ.
Polls have missed before. In 2022 Datafolha’s penultimate poll gave Jair Bolsonaro 36% of valid votes in the first round; he received 43.20%, according to the TSE. Every survey is in our poll tracker.
The Runoff Campaign, October 5
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) meet on Sunday, October 25. Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. in Brasília (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET). The winner needs more than half of the valid votes; blank and spoiled ballots do not count. The new president takes office on January 5, 2027 and the governors on January 6, under a 2021 constitutional amendment (Senate radio). Our runoff explainer has the mechanics.
Flávio starts 1.87 points and about 2.2 million votes ahead. If the two finalists keep their voters and turnout holds, he needs about 3 more points to pass 50% and Lula about 4.8. The other ten candidates took 7.81% of valid votes between them, so Flávio would need roughly 38% of those voters and Lula about 62%. That is our arithmetic from the TSE figures, not a forecast. A first-round lead is no guarantee: in 2022 Lula led by 5.2 points and won the runoff 50.90% to 49.10%.
The Cury voters. Augusto Cury (Avante, 2.89%) said he would stay silent on the runoff and refused any post in the next government. Romeu Zema (Novo, 0.27%) signalled support for Flávio. Renan Santos (Missão, 2.24%) will back neither. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD, 2.18%) said he would speak to his party president before deciding (Terra, updated 12:21 a.m. Brasília on October 5).
The mood. Flávio called the result the end of the PT era, referring to Lula’s Workers’ Party, and said he sees a real possibility of winning. Lula said he had been convinced he would win in the first round and that a new campaign begins on Monday (NC News). Both camps can also look to the 33.47 million voters who stayed home: abstention was 21.08%, against 20.95% in 2022.
TV time. Free TV and radio campaign time returns on October 9 and runs to October 23 (TSE calendar, via Band). In the first round Lula’s coalition held 5 minutes 31 seconds per block against 4 minutes 20 seconds for Flávio (ND Mais). We have not confirmed how the runoff time is divided.
What it means for you. For holders of US-listed Brazilian shares and for companies that trade with Brazil, the next three weeks keep the outlook open: the real and Brazilian stocks are likely to react to each new poll. Not yet known: who Caiado will back, how the TV time is split, and whether the pollsters that underestimated Flávio will change their methods.
Background: Brazil Poll: Flávio Bolsonaro Closes on Lula and Edges Ahead in Run-Off.
More: Brazil news and the complete election guide, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Brazil’s 2026 election results be announced?
The TSE began publishing the official count when polls closed at 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. Brasília) on Sunday, October 4. All polling stations were counted overnight, and the TSE figures as of 1:58 a.m. ET on October 5 are the final tally. In 2022 about 97% of the vote was counted by roughly 9:30 p.m. Brasília time.
Will there be a runoff?
Yes. With every polling station counted, no candidate passed 50% of valid votes: Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.03% and Lula 45.16% (TSE). The two meet in a runoff on Sunday, October 25. Every presidential election since 2002 has gone to a runoff.
Who is leading the 2026 Brazil election?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads the TSE count with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%, a gap of about 2.2 million votes. The last polls, published on October 3, had Lula ahead or level: Datafolha 45% to 42%, Quaest 46% to 45%.
What else is on the ballot?
Voters also elect 27 governors, 54 of the 81 senators, the 513-seat Chamber of Deputies and state legislatures. Governors need more than 50% of valid votes; the two most-voted Senate candidates in each state win.
When does the new president take office?
On January 5, 2027. Governors take office on January 6, under a 2021 constitutional amendment.
Sources: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), official results and the 2022 results by state (open data); Datafolha, AtlasIntel, Quaest, Nexus, Ideia, Real Time Big Data, Vox Brasil, PoderData and MDA as published between September 28 and October 3; Agência Senado and Rádio Senado; EODHD (exchange rate).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief