Brazil Stocks Fall 0.9% as Poll Tightens | Brazil Market Report, Oct 21
Key Facts
- The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, fell 0.9% to 206,495 on Wednesday 21 October after touching 209,245 earlier in the day.
- A new Quaest poll put Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44% for the runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- WEG, the industrial motor maker, fell 7.3% after third-quarter profit rose 0.9% to R$1.66 billion (about US$330 million).
- The real held near R$5.02 per US dollar, while Brazilian shares listed in New York fell: the EWZ fund lost 1.0% and Vale 2.5%.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 79.1% and Lula 20.5% to win the runoff (US$191 million traded, read at 8:30 pm ET on 21 October). Bets, not polls.
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.3% · Lula 21.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 20%
As of 22 October, 9:40 am ET (14:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s stock market fell on Wednesday 21 October as investors turned cautious ahead of the presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October. The Ibovespa, the main stock index, closed at 206,495 points, down 0.86%.
A new Quaest poll put Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44%, a gap that narrowed from two points to one in a week, according to InfoMoney. The real held near R$5.02 per US dollar.
WEG, an industrial group that makes electric motors, fell 7.3% after reporting third-quarter profit of R$1.66 billion (about US$330 million), up only 0.9% from a year earlier.
What matters today. A near-even race is keeping Brazilian investors cautious, even as US stocks rose.
01 The session in one read
The Ibovespa fell 0.86% to 206,495 points. It had reached 209,245 early in the session before reversing.
The trigger was a new Quaest poll showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% for the 25 October runoff. A tight race makes the outcome, and the policy that follows, harder for investors to price.
The real was steady at about R$5.02 per US dollar. US stocks rose, with the S&P 500 up 0.58% and the Nasdaq up 1.05%, but that did not lift São Paulo.
The evidence points to election caution as the main driver: the index reversed from a high of 209,245 after the Quaest poll, while US stocks rose. WEG’s weak profit growth added to the gloom. We could not verify the full list of winners and losers on the index. The variable to watch is whether Sunday’s runoff produces a clear result quickly.
02 The day’s numbers
| Measure | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 206,495 | −0.86% | Pulled back from an intraday high of 209,245 |
| USD/BRL | 5.0245 | −0.07% | Real steady near R$5.02 |
| Brazil fund (EWZ) | US$42.51 | −1.00% | Brazilian shares in New York fell |
| S&P 500 | 7,757 | +0.58% | US stocks rose |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.7 | −0.01% | Little changed |
The Ibovespa is about 1.5% below its highest level of the past year, 209,713 on 9 October. The real is far from its weakest level of the past year, R$5.606 per dollar in December 2025.
Brazil’s mid-month inflation reading, the IPCA-15 for October, is due on Friday 23 October. Bank forecasts range from 0.41% to 0.51% on the month (previous 0.70%), and the previous annual rate was 4.47%.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.86%
206,495.23
-0.86%
70,249.54
+1.43%
10,910.14
-0.69%
3,017,221
—
2,560.37
+1.07%
59,870.67
-0.52%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,495.23 | -0.86% | +21.85% | 208,295.98 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
03 Why it moved — a tight runoff poll and WEG’s weak profit
The Quaest poll, taken from 17 to 20 October, was the main story. It showed Flávio Bolsonaro one point ahead of Lula, narrowing a gap that had been two points the week before, according to InfoMoney.
Investors dislike uncertainty, and a dead-heat race four days before the vote is about as uncertain as it gets. The index fell after its early high.
Corporate earnings added to the gloom. WEG’s profit of R$1.66 billion was only 0.9% above a year earlier, and the shares fell 7.3%.
04 The day’s movers
| Driver | Level / Move | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| WEG | — | −7.3% | Fell after weak third-quarter profit growth |
| Vale (NYSE) | US$12.70 | −2.46% | Iron-ore miner, New York shares |
| Petrobras (NYSE) | US$25.66 | −0.16% | State oil company, New York shares |
| Itaú Unibanco (NYSE) | US$9.70 | 0.00% | Largest private bank, New York shares |
| Bradesco (NYSE) | US$4.05 | −0.74% | Bank, New York shares |
| Nubank (NYSE) | US$15.05 | −0.27% | Digital bank |
We list the movers we could verify. Brazilian shares in New York mostly fell, led by Vale, which lost 2.46%.
05 The regional scoreboard
| Index | Country | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | −0.86% | |
| S&P/BMV IPC | Mexico | +1.43% | |
| S&P IPSA | Chile | +0.54% | |
| COLCAP | Colombia | +1.07% | |
| BVL Perú | Peru | −0.52% |
Brazil was the weakest of the markets we track. Mexico (+1.4%), Colombia, Chile and Argentina rose, which points to election nerves as a mostly Brazilian story.
Argentina’s Merval also rose, but sources differ on the size of the gain, so we do not print a figure.
06 The technical picture
The Ibovespa closed 1.3% below its intraday high of 209,245. The 209,000 area is the level to beat; a close above it would extend the uptrend.
A close below Wednesday’s low of 205,988 would show that election nerves are spreading.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market, priced Flávio Bolsonaro at 79.1% and Lula at 20.5% to win the presidency, with US$191,087,275 traded (read at 8:30 pm ET on 21 October). Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, priced a Flávio win by 0–3 points at 35% and 3–6 points at 32%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They can move quickly with each new poll.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
07 What to watch
- Runoff (Sunday 25 October): A clear winner could trigger a relief rally; a contested result could bring volatility.
- National Monetary Council (Thursday 22 October, 13:00 Lisbon): The central bank’s policy council meets; we have no forecast to report.
- IPCA-15 inflation (Friday 23 October): Bank forecasts range from 0.41% to 0.51% on the month; the previous reading was 0.70%.
- Next polls: Another close poll would keep investors on edge before Sunday’s vote.
Background: Brazil Stocks Jump 1.57% on Bank Rally.
Background: Brazil Stocks Dip 0.2% as Petrobras Falls 3%.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Ibovespa fall on 21 October?
A new Quaest poll showed a near-tie in the runoff, and WEG reported weak profit growth. The index fell 0.86% to 206,495.
What happened to the real?
The real was steady at about R$5.02 per US dollar. Currency traders appeared less worried than stock investors.
What did the Quaest poll show?
It put Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44% for the runoff on 25 October.
What do prediction markets say about the runoff?
Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro 79.1% and Lula 20.5%, as of 8:30 pm ET on 21 October. These are bets, not polls.
Market data: RT; exchange figures from B3
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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