45,000 People in Greater São Paulo May Contract Coronavirus

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – An audio of cardiologist Fábio Jatene, director of the thoracic surgery service of the Instituto do Coração (Heart Institute – InCor) of the Hospital das Clínicas, displays a dramatic scenario for the spread of the coronavirus in the country.

In the recording, the veracity of which was confirmed by the doctor to the story, he reports on a meeting he had with some of the most renowned doctors in São Paulo. The audio was sent only to his colleagues, but leaked and was spread by messaging Apps.

The doctors at the meeting estimated that within four months there will be 45,000 people infected with the coronavirus in Greater São Paulo alone. The forecast is that 11,000 will need treatment at Intensive Care Units (ICUs), which simply do not exist in this quantity.

According to the report, the medical authorities of the São Paulo government estimate that around 5,000 ICU beds will be needed for the time being, although the estimate ranges from 2,500 to 9,000 beds in Greater São Paulo alone. There are still no elements in Brazil to estimate the number of cases requiring intensive follow-up.

According to these preliminary estimates, the peak number of new cases should occur within one month.

The number of cases in the state of São Paulo could range from 80,000 to 100,000. Yet, according to people involved in the state government’s preparations for the disease, little is known about the characteristics of the epidemic in São Paulo or Brazil. Containment measures (in this case, stopping activities involving crowds and mass transport) and the virus’ adjustment to the climate (whether it will be more or less dangerous in an environment with higher temperatures) will have to be taken into account.

São Paulo’s Hospital das Clínicas is said to have already reserved 75 ICU beds for victims of the coronavirus. Among other physicians, Davi Uip (infectologist), Esper Cavalheiro (neurologist) and Marcelo Amato (intensivist, specialized in critically ill patients) attended the scientific meeting.

Uip said cases should skyrocket in the country from now on, and the most vulnerable and the ones requiring most attention are the elderly. The mortality rate among them reaches 18 percent, while among the young it is 0.2 percent.

According to doctors, the scenario is of great concern. They also anticipate that the peak of the disease will be over within four months.

Over the next 15 days, it will become clearer how the disease will affect Brazil, whether the country will follow the French or Italian model. Both had approximately 12 confirmed cases on February 21st.

As of March 10th, Italy had more than 10,000 and France about 1,700. For the time being, Brazil is at the pace of France.