Bolsonaro Leads 2022 Election Projections in All Scenarios, Even Against Lula

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Approval of Jair Bolsonaro’s government has remained stable, his disapproval has dropped and, had the elections been held today, the president would have taken the lead in all scenarios. This is shown in a survey conducted by the consultancy Atlas Político between February 7th and 9th.

Bolsonaro and Lula fight for first place with, respectively, 32 and 28 percent of voter intentions. Moro, who has denied any intention to dispute the presidency as a rival of the current president, trails close behind at 20 percent, followed by TV presenter Huck (six percent), Maranhão governor Flavio Dino (three percent) and São Paulo governor João Doria (0.6 percent).

Without Lula and Moro in the race, Brazil’s current president has 41 percent of voter intentions, with a wide gap between him and runner-up, TV host Luciano Huck, who has 14 percent; Governor Dino would have 13 percent, and Governor Doria only 2.5 percent.

In a scenario without Moro or Lula, the number of undecided voters, or voters who say they would cast a blank or invalid vote is significant, reaching 27 percent. The percentage is very close to the 2018 presidential election, when void votes reached 30 percent.

On the other hand, this number decreases significantly when Lula and Moro join the fray. In this scenario, the total of blank, null and undecided votes stands at only nine percent.

The survey was conducted on the Internet through random calls to 2,000 people between February 7th and 9th, in all regions of the country. The error margin is plus-or-minus two percent, and the reliability level is 95 percent.

The scenario in which Lula disputes the presidential election is merely hypothetical. Convicted in the Triplex case, despite having been released from jail in November, Lula is barred from running by the Ficha Limpa (Clean Record) law. However, his attorneys are seeking to overturn his conviction, questioning the actions of then-judge Sérgio Moro in the case.

Lula’s petition was submitted to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) last year, but hearings were interrupted by a request from Justice Gilmar Mendes. If a majority of the STF justices decide that Moro’s actions were partial or biased, the conviction would be remanded to the lower court for a new trial. In such case, Lula would no longer have a “dirty” criminal record and would be free to run.

In general terms, the current survey shows numbers quite similar to those of 2018. That year, the Workers’ Party (PT) launched Lula as a candidate while the leftist was still in prison. Surveys then showed that he was leading with ease in all projected scenarios.

However, as he was legally barred from disputing the election, the ex-president was replaced at the last minute by the former mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad. Voting intentions for “Lula’s candidate” plummeted, but he made it to the runoff election, where Bolsonaro was elected with 55 percent of valid votes, compared to 44 percent for Haddad.

The earlier scenario is echoed in this survey. Should a runoff election be held today, a candidate endorsed by Lula – whoever it may be – would also come second in the two scenarios designed by researchers. Against Bolsonaro (45 percent), anyone endorsed by Lula would have 35 percent of valid votes.

The percentage of support for the candidate chosen by Lula remains similar (36 percent) when the dispute is against Sérgio Moro. The most notable change, however, is that the Justice Minister would win with 54 percent of voting intentions.

Optimism about the economy

The survey also measured the approval rate of the Bolsonaro government, which remained stable according to the error margin: 29 percent now, compared to 27 percent in November 2019. Meanwhile, the disapproval rating declined by five percentage points, from 42 percent in November to 37 percent now.

Optimism regarding Bolsonaro’s administration is also reflected in prospects for the economy: half the population say they believe the country’s economic situation should improve over the next six months.

There has also been a slight improvement in the outlook on crime and corruption. Thirty percent of Brazilians say they believe crime is decreasing – compared to 27 percent in November last year – and 26 percent said the same about corruption, compared to 17 percent in November.

Minister Sérgio Moro’s downward cycle, which had been noted since last year’s disclosure of dialogues between him and Lava Jato prosecutors, also seems to have changed course. The former judge’s approval rate rose six points from November, reaching 54 percent.

In May last year, Moro was rated positively by 60 percent of respondents. In the following month, as the leaked messages began to be disclosed in articles from several media outlets, Moro’s approval dropped below 50 percent.

The survey also rated the image of other notable political figures. Moro leads the ranking of those with a positive rating (54 percent), followed by Bolsonaro (43 percent) and Economy Minister Paulo Guedes (43 percent). At the other end of the scale, the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, has the highest negative rating (66 percent), followed by João Doria (64 percent) and Fernando Haddad (59 percent).

Source: El Pais

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