Poll: Bolsonaro Approval Reaches 39 Percent, Exceeds Rejection for First Time in 16 Months

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – After a 16-month hiatus, the approval rating of President Jair Bolsonaro has once again exceeded disapproval. This is shown in a new round of an XP/IPESPE survey, conducted between September 8th and 11th.

According to the survey, 39 percent of voters rate the government as excellent or good, while 36 percent consider the current management bad or terrible. The three percentage points difference is within the maximum error margin of the survey, of 3.2 points.

This is the fifth successive poll that records an upward swing among those who rate the government positively and a downward one among those who rate it negatively. From the figures in May, Bolsonaro has accumulated a rebound of four percentage points in his excellent or good rating. As a result, the President is nearing his highest rating (40 percent), recorded in the first two months of his administration.

In terms of rejection, there has been a drop of 14 percentage points over the past four months. Thus, the President returns to his pre-pandemic ratings. The trend coincides with a perceived improvement in the health crisis and majority support for the emergency aid, although the amount of the benefit for the next four months has been reduced from R$600 to R$300.

The results also show that, up to now, the rise in food prices has not translated into a reduction in the President’s support. In recent days, the topic has caused concern at the Planalto Palace, and Bolsonaro even called for “patriotism” by urging supermarket owners to keep a lower profit margin on basic market basket products.

The government decided to zero the tax rate on imported paddy and processed rice until the end of the year, to increase supply. On another front, the National Consumer Secretariat, linked to the Ministry of Justice and Public Safety, has notified supermarket representatives and food producers to demand explanations about the price hike.

The sectorial analysis of the survey data shows that among voters with an income of up to two minimum salaries (a group which corresponds to 47 percent of the sample), Bolsonaro’s positive rating has reached 36 percent – the highest since February 2019. Among the public with income between two and five salaries, there was a negative variation of two percentage points, to 52 percent, a level still higher than when the President took office (41 percent).

However, it is among the electorate with an income above five minimum salaries that the highest rise in the President’s approval rates was observed, rising from 29 percent in August to 46 percent today. It is the second highest rating registered by Bolsonaro, behind only January this year and March 2019. The group accounts for 17 percent of the sample.

The XP/IPESPE survey conducted 1,000 telephone interviews with voters from all regions of Brazil, between September 8th and 11th. The maximal error margin is 3.2 percentage points plus or minus.

The survey shows that 40 percent of respondents have already received the emergency aid and two percent still believe that they will be benefited by the program, paid to casual workers and low-income families affected by the health crisis.

Among those who received the benefit, 49 percent believe that with the gradual reopening of the economy, their income will revert to before the pandemic. Another 44 percent disagree. Considering the reduction of the benefit to R$300, 43 percent of beneficiaries said that the family income will be lower.

Asked about Renda Brasil (Brazil Income), a new minimum income program under development by the federal government to replace the Bolsa Família (Family Grant), 49 percent of current emergency aid beneficiaries believe they will not be on the list of those covered. Another 25 percent expect to be beneficiaries of the program, while 25 percent did not know or did not answer.

The survey also shows that 47 percent of voters consider President Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to extend the emergency aid until the end of the year to be positive, although with a reduction in the amount, from R$600 to R$300. For 24 percent, the decision is fair, while 25 percent considered it negative.

Despite the improvement in the President’s approval, the survey shows a negative perception about the economic agenda. According to 48 percent of respondents, the country’s economy is on the wrong track – ten percentage points higher than the group of those who assess the adopted paths positively.

The survey also shows a new reduction in the risk perception of job loss among the population. Some 52 percent believe they have a high chance of keeping their current jobs and now 39 percent believe their prospects are small. In May, the two groups reached 54 and 39 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, there was a rebound in personal debt perception. The group of those who believe their debts will grow in six months reached 45 percent in April, fell to 24 percent in August and now has risen to 28 percent. On the other hand, those who expect a reduction in debt reached 14 percent in April, 27 percent last month and now account for 24 percent of respondents.

In the scope of the Covid-19 pandemic, the survey shows a new increase in voters who believe that the worst of the crisis has passed. The group, which totaled 22 percent in May, now represents 60 percent of respondents. Those who believe that the worst is yet to come dropped from 68 to 32 percent over the same period. According to the 62 percent, there will be a vaccine available for the population between this year-end and the first half of 2021.

Source: InfoMoney