Brazil 2021 inflation, GDP and interest rate forecasts surge to new highs – FOCUS survey

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Forecasts for Brazilian growth, inflation, and interest rates in 2021 hit new highs, a survey of economists showed on Monday, with the Central Bank now seen tightening policy much faster as inflation sails above the upper limit of its target range.

The median forecast for 2021 inflation from more than 100 economists in the bank’s weekly FOCUS survey jumped to 5.8% from 5.4%, more than two percentage points above the bank’s year-end goal of 3.75% and well above the 5.25% upper limit of its wider range.

Following the release of stronger-than-expected first-quarter gross domestic product growth figures earlier this month, the median 2021 growth forecast jumped to a new high of 4.9% from 4.4%, the survey showed. Just over a month ago the forecast stood at 3.2%.

These findings marked the 10th consecutive weekly rise in the inflation outlook, and the eighth rise in growth forecasts.

The Central Bank is widely expected to raise its benchmark SELIC rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday for a third time, to 4.25%, and perhaps drop its commitment to only a “partial” normalization of policy.

The FOCUS survey on Monday showed that economists’ year-end Selic median forecast jumped to 6.25% from 5.75% a week ago. Four weeks ago it stood at 5.50%.

This shows economists now believe the Central Bank will raise the SELIC towards the so-called ‘neutral’ rate, widely considered to be around 6.00%-6.50%, much earlier than previously thought. Next year’s median forecast held steady at 6.50%.

Central Bank chief Roberto Campos Neto said recently that the bank is “100% committed” to meeting its inflation goals.

Sourcce: Reuters