Brazil expects grain harvest of 300 million tons in 2024/2025, due to increased cultivation

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil should harvest more than 300 million tons of grains by the 2024/25 harvest, or three seasons earlier than once predicted, according to the new projections of the Ministry of Agriculture. The previous forecast, a mantra of Minister Tereza Cristina since she took over the portfolio, at set the target as the 2027/28 cycle.

According to the new projections, which the Ministry will publish today, July 7, the Brazilian production of grains should grow 27.1% until 2030/31 when it reaches 333.1 million tons. In the season ended in June, the country harvested 262.1 million tons, according to the calculations of the National Foodstuff Supply Company (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento).

For chicken, beef, and pork production, the Ministry of Agriculture now forecasts an increase of 24% in this interval. The survey also shows the expected evolution in the fruit, cotton, and sugar cane sector.

Despite the problems that arose with the pandemic, the agricultural sector had good results in the country, with record harvests and prices. Furthermore, the Gross Value of Production (GVP) prospects surpass the R$1 trillion (US$190 billion) mark and a 3.5% growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of agribusiness.

According to the Ministry, the area with grain plantations, which is today 68.7 million hectares, should reach at least 80.8 million hectares in 2030/31. If the cultivation of other crops, such as sugar cane, coffee, and fruits, is considered, Brazil can plant 92.3 million hectares within ten years, representing 10.8% of the Brazilian territory.

The expansion will occur especially with the increase in soybean areas, which will grow by 10.3 million hectares in the Center-West and the Matopiba region (confluence between the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia). Oilseeds are expected to occupy 48.8 million hectares in the 2030/31 harvest. In the 2020/21 harvest, the planting took place in 38.5 million hectares, with 138.5 million tons.

Judging by the results of the last decade, the projections may even be timid. In 2011, the ministry calculated that Brazil would harvest 185 million tons of grains in 2021/22, of which 89 million would be soybeans, a mark surpassed years ago.

Sugarcane crops should be increased by 1 million hectares, mainly in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Minas Gerais. Second-crop corn will have an additional area of 5.2 million hectares in the country, totaling 20 million hectares in the 2030/31 cycle. The cultivation of wheat and cotton is also expected to grow.

The increase in production should occur from incorporating new areas, from the advance over natural pastures, and other crop areas’ occupation. According to government projections, crops such as rice, beans, manioc, potatoes, coffee, and oranges will lose planted area. Ten years from now, the Center-West will be responsible for 46.1% of the national production of grains, with a planted area 27% larger than today.

The ministry warns that the pressure to use corn and soy crops to produce biodiesel and ethanol tends to increase. In addition, the growth in agricultural production and demand will also accentuate the need for investments in infrastructure, research, and producer financing.

NATURAL EXPORTER

Brazil should strengthen its role as a world food exporter in the period considered in the study. The soybean shipments are expected to exceed 116 million tons in 2030/31, an increase of 33.6% in relation to the 2020/21 season, corn shipments, 42.4 million tons, and 43.8%.

Despite the prominence of soybeans, the Ministry of Agriculture draws attention to the “comparative advantage” that the country has in meat and fruit, especially mango, melons, and grape. The Ministry predicts growth of 54.5%, 31.7%, and 38.6% for these crops, respectively.

“In meat, there will be strong pressure from the international market, especially for beef and pork, although Brazil continues to lead the international chicken market,” says the ministry.

The study also calls attention to the growth in domestic demand. “Of the increase expected for chicken, 71.4% of the 2030/31 production will be destined for the domestic market; of the beef produced, 64% should go to the domestic market, and, in pork, 73.8%,” the ministry says. “Although Brazil is, in general, a large exporter of several of these products, domestic consumption will be important.

In 2030/31, a third of soy production will supply the domestic market. In corn and coffee, the shares will be 71.6% and 43%, respectively. “There will be pressure on the increase in national production due to the growth of the domestic market and exports,” says the study.

Source: Valor

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