Brazil’s 2021 inflation outlook surges to 4.6%, well beyond Central Bank target – Survey
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s expected inflation for 2021 shot up to a new high of 4.6%, a Central Bank survey of economists published on Monday, March 15th, showed, significantly above the bank’s year-end target of 3.75%.
It was the tenth rise in a row, and was accompanied by a further increase in the average forecast for official interest rates at the end of this year, by 50 basis points to 4.50%.
The average forecast for IPCA consumer price inflation at the end of this year rose significantly 0.6%, up from 4.0% a week ago, according to the latest weekly “FOCUS” survey of over 100 economists, and comes after figures last week showed inflation in February running at 5.2%.
The Central Bank’s official goal this year is 3.75%, with a margin of error of 1.5 percentage point on either side.
The bank is widely expected to raise the SELIC benchmark interest rate from a record low 2.00% at its policy meeting later this week, which would be the first increase since 2015.
Economists also lowered their end-2021 average forecast for the real to 5.30 per dollar from 5.15 the week before, and next year’s forecast to 5.20 per dollar from 5.13.
A persistently weak exchange rate, strong global commodity prices and growing concerns over the government’s fiscal position are all pushing inflation expectations higher.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+2.22%
172,236.05
+2.22%
71,866.30
+0.66%
10,589.61
+0.50%
2,848,945
—
2,576.36
+3.67%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,236.05 | +2.22% | +10.94% | 168,498.45 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.51 | +0.05% | +3.38% | 5.51 | 5.52 | 5.51 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 45.19 | -0.24% | +39.65% | 45.30 | 45.39 | 44.29 | 40,897,000 |
| VALE3 | 66.11 | +3.23% | +1.38% | 64.04 | 66.30 | 64.74 | 20,259,100 |
| ITUB4 | 41.72 | +2.94% | +6.26% | 40.53 | 41.79 | 40.89 | 17,762,100 |
| BBDC4 | 14.68 | +3.38% | -23.06% | 14.20 | 14.68 | 14.34 | 39,079,800 |
| BBAS3 | 17.02 | -0.64% | -25.29% | 17.13 | 17.39 | 16.73 | 41,431,000 |
| B3SA3 | 14.85 | +3.20% | +13.19% | 14.39 | 14.93 | 14.32 | 27,051,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.61 | +0.84% | +18.44% | 15.48 | 15.68 | 15.38 | 27,548,800 |
| WEGE3 | 50.74 | +5.29% | +11.84% | 48.19 | 50.87 | 48.26 | 16,073,900 |
| PRIO3 | 59.39 | -1.80% | +51.39% | 60.48 | 59.57 | 56.90 | 10,987,900 |
| SUZB3 | 54.20 | +1.50% | +16.06% | 53.40 | 54.32 | 52.30 | 10,985,300 |
| RENT3 | 30.83 | +1.78% | -26.72% | 30.29 | 30.96 | 30.00 | 11,812,400 |
| AZZA3 | 15.12 | +2.44% | -46.31% | 14.76 | 15.32 | 14.84 | 2,774,100 |
| CSNA3 | 4.49 | +1.81% | -45.84% | 4.41 | 4.79 | 4.41 | 32,453,700 |
| GGBR4 | 25.26 | +4.60% | +32.25% | 24.15 | 25.30 | 24.17 | 24,250,400 |
| ENEV3 | 27.40 | +2.09% | +41.60% | 26.84 | 27.62 | 26.90 | 8,949,100 |
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