Brazil’s 2021 inflation outlook surges to 4.6%, well beyond Central Bank target – Survey
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s expected inflation for 2021 shot up to a new high of 4.6%, a Central Bank survey of economists published on Monday, March 15th, showed, significantly above the bank’s year-end target of 3.75%.
It was the tenth rise in a row, and was accompanied by a further increase in the average forecast for official interest rates at the end of this year, by 50 basis points to 4.50%.
The average forecast for IPCA consumer price inflation at the end of this year rose significantly 0.6%, up from 4.0% a week ago, according to the latest weekly “FOCUS” survey of over 100 economists, and comes after figures last week showed inflation in February running at 5.2%.
The Central Bank’s official goal this year is 3.75%, with a margin of error of 1.5 percentage point on either side.
The bank is widely expected to raise the SELIC benchmark interest rate from a record low 2.00% at its policy meeting later this week, which would be the first increase since 2015.
Economists also lowered their end-2021 average forecast for the real to 5.30 per dollar from 5.15 the week before, and next year’s forecast to 5.20 per dollar from 5.13.
A persistently weak exchange rate, strong global commodity prices and growing concerns over the government’s fiscal position are all pushing inflation expectations higher.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
-0.10%
166,934.20
-0.10%
64,397.45
-0.66%
11,042.67
+0.39%
2,947,349
-1.77%
2,452.46
+0.84%
58,104.31
+0.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 166,934.20 | -0.10% | +21.85% | 167,100.95 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
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