Brazil’s Centrão voting bloc uses health crisis and Bolsonaro’s unpopularity for further power grab

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The health crisis combined with President Jair Bolsonaro’s growing unpopularity has boosted the Centrão’s appetite for five new ministries. On Wednesday, March 17th, a Datafolha poll showed that 40% of respondents consider Bolsonaro’s government bad or terrible,while  his management of the covid-19 pandemic is disapproved by 54% of Brazilians, and 56% believe he is unfit to lead the country.

Even before having these numbers in hand, but also estimating the impact of ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-entry into the political scene, the power-hungry group of center-right parties had already raised its price for supporting the Planalto.

Now, they want nominations for at least five portfolios: Chief of Staff, Government Secretariat, Mines and Energy, Foreign Relations, and Education. It is a clear move toward two areas that are the foundations of Bolsonarism, the military and the far-right ideology. The first three ministries are headed by members of the Armed Forces. The other two had appointments from his ideological base.

It is a high stakes contest. The positions of Ministers General Walter Braga Netto (Chief of Staff) and Luiz Eduardo Ramos (Government) are unlikely to be changed. But the group is betting on old-style political negotiation, asking for more than it is likely to get to later say that it has conceded something in return.

In addition, Centrão legislators want to use the arrival of the new Health Minister, Marcelo Queiroga, to appoint their cronies to strategic second and third level positions that are currently held by the military in the portfolio.

There are at least 15 positions that legislators are negotiating. The information was provided by three Centrão leaders interviewed by EL PAÍS between Tuesday and Wednesday.

The last straw for the members of Bolsonaro’s parliamentary base was Doctor Ludmilla Hajjar’s refusal to lead the Health portfolio. They understood that her appointment would signal a genuine change in the Ministry, not just a change of name, as occurred with the appointment of Doctor Marcelo Queiroga to replace General Eduardo Pazuello, with the argument of work continuity.

Within the Centrão, Hajjar’s main sponsor was Chamber president Arthur Lira, the same politician who was promised four ministries by the Planalto to help his election last February. Only one portfolio was delivered, that of Citizenship to Deputy João Roma, which in the current situation intensified the group’s interest in positions. Minister Fábio Faria is also a member of the “Centrão” in Bolsonaro’s government, but his appointment was more of a personal choice than a sponsorship from his party.

Two instruments of pressure should be used by legislators in an effort to spread their tentacles in the administration: the possible beginning of impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro and the opening of a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry to investigate the management of the coronavirus pandemic. The first case hinges mainly on Lira. Until last month, he had always maintained that he would not accept any of the 60 impeachment motions against the president.

A timid change in Lira’s stance occurred on Monday, when it became known that Hajjar would not be Minister. Rather than denying that he would open impeachment proceedings, he stated that he did not have time to analyze the files. Lira has held the post since February 2nd. “I haven’t had time yet. Time that the previous president [Rodrigo Maia] had. He was in office for almost 5 years, received 60 motions and didn’t find any kind of major motivation to move forward.” The statement was made in a debate promoted by O Globo and Valor Econômico newspapers.

Factors weighing against a presidential impeachment are time, the electoral calendar, and the absence of in-person sessions in Congress because of the covid-19 pandemic, which prevents crowds, particularly indoors. In the case of Dilma Rousseff, almost 9 months elapsed between the moment the case was accepted by then-Chamber president Eduardo Cunha and the moment the Senate voted for her impeachment. And in 2022, deputies and senators will be busy with electoral campaigns in which several of them will run for re-election.

In the Senate, its president Rodrigo Pacheco, who is relatively close to Lira, has been torn between rejecting the opening of the Covid CPI and accepting it. The motion calling for its opening has already been signed by 31 senators, 4 more than the minimum required. Earlier, Pacheco said that it would be counterproductive to start such an investigation at this time. Now, he is not ruling it out.

“We will decide on a PCI at an opportune moment, as soon as we can exhaust the most urgent measures: emergency aid, accredited ICU beds, and vaccination on a larger scale for the Brazilian population,” he said in the same debate attended by the Chamber president.

The group’s next steps should be taken in the coming weeks, when the results of the first measures taken by new Minister Queiroga will begin to emerge. A sign that the fuse is short can be seen in Deputy Marcelo Ramos’ comments on Twitter.

“The country’s situation does not allow the Health Minister time to learn how to be a Minister. Answers will need to be quick and effective. Passing clear messages of commitment to prevention policies and expediting the vaccination process should be immediate actions.” Ramos is the first vice-president of the Chamber and has been a kind of spokesperson for his group on difficult issues.

Source: El Pais