Brazil’s predicted price index increases to 6.31%, above the target ceiling – Focus Report
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The financial market projection for inflation in 2021 has moved further away from the ceiling of the target pursued by the Central Bank.
According to the Focus Market Report, economists in the financial market changed their forecast for the Extended National Consumer Price Index IPCA – the official price index – this year, according to the Focus Market Report, from 6.11% to 6.31%.
The projection for the index in 2022 remained at 3.75%. A month ago, it was 5.90%. Four weeks ago, it was at 3.78%.
The Focus report also brought the projection for the IPCA in 2023, which remained at 3.25%. In the case of 2024, the expectation went from 3.16% to 3.06%. Four weeks ago, these projections were 3.25% for both cases.
The economists’ projection for inflation is already well above the 2021 target ceiling of 5.25%. The center of the target for the year is 3.75%, and the margin of tolerance is 1.5 points (from 2.25% to 5.25%). The target for 2022 is 3.50%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 2.00% to 5.00%), while the parameter for 2023 is 3.25% inflation, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 1.75% to 4.75%). For 2024 the target is 3.00%, with a margin of 1.5 points (from 1.5% to 4.5%).
Last 5 working days
According to the Market Focus Report, the median projection for the IPCA in 2021 updated based on the last 5 working days went from 6.32% to 6.43%. There were 53 answers for this projection in the period. A month ago, the calculated percentage was 5.93%.
In 2022, the IPCA projection of the last 5 working days followed at 3.71%. A month ago, it was 3.74%. The Focus update was made by 52 institutions.
Other months
The financial market economists changed their forecast for the IPCA in July 2021, from a high of 0.58% to 0.71%. A month earlier, the projected percentage was 0.40%.
For August, the Focus projection was of an expansion from 0.30% to 0.32%, and for September, it remained at 0.30%. A month ago, the percentages indicated increases of 0.25% and 0.28%, in that order.
In the focus report released on Monday, July 19, the smoothed inflation for the next 12 months went from a high of 4.31% to 4.27% from one week to another – a month ago, it was at 4.28%.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+1.85%
171,031.73
+1.85%
65,729.18
+2.14%
11,338.38
+0.89%
2,913,184
+1.30%
2,459.23
+0.61%
58,698.13
+2.60%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,031.73 | +1.85% | +21.85% | 167,927.15 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
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