RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – By 2100, Brazil’s population is expected fall below 180 million, according to the study “Population Projections by Age and Sex for Brazil to 2100” by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea).
In the study, researchers Gabriela Bonifácio and Raquel Guimarães used different methods for population analysis.
The extended projection period chosen – from 2010 to 2100 – is not standard in population forecasting. According to the study, this technique enables plausible population data to support critical economic and actuarial projections, which require a more extended period in some situations.
To prepare the study, the researchers assumed three scenarios. The first considered the hypothesis of continuity in the trends projected by IBGE: Migration balances close to zero in the country in the coming years, a decline in fertility to 1.66 children per woman, and continuity of the decrease in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy of the country’s population.
In the second scenario, called the “shock”, fertility falls to a level lower than that predicted by the IBGE, and the same applies to mortality. The result of this phenomenon is a higher life expectancy than predicted. Migration was maintained with the same behavior estimated for the first scenario.
Finally, the researchers considered a scenario with constant fertility. Therefore, IBGE’s projected fertility rates were maintained for most of the period analyzed, and mortality and migration rates were the same as for the first project scenario.
These assumptions resulted in three possible population projections that differ in composition by sex and age groups and have different implications for the social security system.
“Population projection is a complex task that must consider several demographic, economic, political, and social factors to ensure high-quality development. As a result, it is tough to obtain completely accurate projections, and it becomes even more complicated as the size of the locality decreases,” the text states.
AGE GROUP
Despite the caveats, the two scenarios show that the Brazilian population will decline.
One projection suggests that the country will have a population of about 194 million people in 2100, lower than in 2010ç the other suggests only 180 million. The difference between the two scenarios lies in the speed at which this population decline will occur.
The growth rates show that the Brazilian population will have a negative growth from 2050 onwards in the first scenario, and the same will be the case in the third scenario.
The results for these two scenarios are pretty similar. The difference lies in the pace of population decline.
According to the study, however, the growth rate becomes negative from 2040 onward in the shock scenario. The projected birth rate will decline to a shallow level and more than in the other scenarios.
The study also notes a significant change in the country’s age structure. It shows that the relative weight of the youngest (up to age 15) decreases, and the relative importance of the elderly (over age 65) increases in all scenarios.
In the first two scenarios, the youngest will make up only about 13% of the population in 2100, while the elderly will make up about 30%.
This is the opposite of what happened in 2010 at the beginning of the projection. In the shock scenario, in which the aging process is faster and more severe, the youngest will represent 9% of the total Brazilian population in 2100 and the elderly 40%.