CNN Brasil poll shows Bolsonaro in first place, ten points ahead of Lula

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (CNN) President Jair Bolsonaro leads voting intentions in a CNN/Real Time Big Data Institute poll on the 2022 presidential elections.

The survey shows Bolsonaro with 31% of the vote, ten percentage points more than second placed ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The error margin is three percentage points plus or minus.

This is the first survey taken following STF Justice Edson Fachin’s ruling to overturn Lula’s convictions in the Lava Jato operation, which makes the former president eligible for the next elections.

The survey presents a dispute between 8 candidates as a potential scenario for the presidential election. Behind Bolsonaro and Lula, there is a technical tie for third place among 4 candidates: Sergio Moro (10%), Ciro Gomes (9%), Luciano Huck (7%) and João Doria (4%).

Potential candidates João Amoêdo and Marina Silva were also in a technical tie, according to the survey. Amoedo recorded 2% of voting intentions and Marina Silva totaled 1%.

Blank and void votes added up to 12%, while 3% of respondents said they did not yet know how they would vote or did not answer.

Second round

Considering a second round between the leading candidates, Bolsonaro and Lula, the survey showed 43% of voting intentions for the current president and 39% for ex-president Lula.

Taking into account the three percentage points error margin, they are technically tied in the second round.

Still considering a potential second round in 2022, the survey shows that blank and void votes total 15%. Three percent of respondents did not know or did not answer this stage of the survey.

In the second-round scenario between Bolsonaro and Ciro Gomes, the president reached 43%, while Gomes totaled 36%. In the scenario against Sergio Moro, Bolsonaro reached 41% against 38% for the ex-judge. In a dispute against Luciano Huck, Bolsonaro registered 46% of the voting intentions, while the TV host totaled 31%.

Fachin’s ruling

The survey was conducted between March 8th and 9th, after Federal Supreme Court (STF) Justice Edson Fachin overturned Lula’s convictions handed down by the 13th Court of the Federal Court in Curitiba, in an unappealable ruling.

Respondents were asked whether they agreed with the Justice’s decision to overturn ex-president Lula’s convictions. The results show that 36% of the public agrees with Fachin’s decision, while 54% disagree. A total of 10% either did not know or did not answer.

Survey details

The survey heard 1,200 people from all over Brazil, with a three-point error margin (plus or minus) and a 95% reliability level. This means that if the same survey were conducted 100 times, the result would be the same, within the error margin, in 95 cases.

The methodology adopted was quantitative, conducted by telephone, with human interviewers. The survey is not registered with the Superior Electoral Court, because the law only allows poll registration during the official pre-election period.