Cut in 2nd corn crop will lower Brazil’s exports to 26 million tons, says Agroconsult

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil’s 2020/21 second corn crop was estimated at 66.2 million tons, with the drought curtailing the harvest by 15% compared to March’s projection of 78.3 million tons, Agroconsult pointed out Wednesday in a report.

“This crop will not have its full potential reflected in the field. The irregular weather has severely affected corn,” said André Debastiani, coordinator of the Rally da Safra expedition, which will assess yields in the field starting Sunday.

According to the consulting firm, the coming weeks will be critical for defining productivity.

“There is rain forecast for the main second-crop corn producing states. If this is confirmed, the problems may be somewhat mitigated, particularly for later crops. If it continues to rain little, however, new negative revisions may occur,” stated the consulting company.

Considering both the summer crop and the second crop, Agroconsult projects Brazilian corn production at only 91.1 million tons, below 100 million tons for the first time since the 2017/18 crop.

“The production drop is reflected in the high prices of corn in the market, in a very unfavorable exchange ratio for chicken and pork production. This also happens with the ethanol industry, which is working with tight margins,” he added.

With a smaller harvest, Brazilian exports will be hampered: the estimate for shipments in 2021, which was 35 million tons, now stands at only 26 million tons, according to Agroconsult, also mentioning that the “prospect is that the year will end with very low stocks.”

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