How Can Investigation of Flávio Bolsonaro Affect the President’s Future?

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The progress of investigations into an alleged practice of salary “splitting” kickbacks in the office of current Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, at the time when he was serving as a deputy in ALERJ (Rio de Janeiro State Legislative Assembly), brought an old crisis back to the Planalto Palace.

In recent days, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of President Jair Bolsonaro, was the target of a new operation, three weeks after the STF (Federal Supreme Court) cleared the way for the investigation that had been suspended mid-year.

This time, investigators were looking for evidence of potential embezzlement crimes – related to the purported practice of “splitting”, namely, coercion to kick back salaries of cabinet officials to the deputy – and money laundering.

Twenty-four search and seizure warrants were served at addresses linked to the senator, his former advisor Fabrício Queiroz, and the relatives of Ana Cristina Siqueira Valle, the current president’s former wife.

In recent days, part of the content of the investigation, which is being conducted in confidentiality, has been released by the press.

The investigators suspect that funds have been laundered in transactions to buy and sell two apartments in Copacabana with artificially produced gains, and from the franchise operations of a chocolate store of which the deputy is a part owner.

The progress of investigations has led government ministers to seek even greater detachment from the issue. For his part, President Jair Bolsonaro averted the issue, avoided an emphatic defense of his son, and adopted an aggressive stance with journalists.

“You look like a terrible homosexual, but I don’t accuse you of being homosexual,” he told a reporter at a press conference on Friday, December 20th, after being asked about former advisor, Fabrício Queiroz.

“This is not the first time that Bolsonaro has said that the problems are not related to him,” recalls Paulo Gama, a political analyst at XP Investments, in the latest edition of the Frequência Política (“Political Frequency”) podcast.

The program addressed the investigation’s legal and political impacts, among other issues, and provided insights into what may happen next year.

“Clearly there is a problem. He is living with a shadow at all times, waiting for the day when the content of these [seized] phones and [bank] statements will come out or other searches and seizures will occur”, he adds.

The effects could be even more significant if the National Congress were in full activity and at a decisive moment for the processing of relevant government matters.

“If we were in the middle of an important vote, there would probably be some kind of turmoil now. The left-wing has a little less muscle now, but it still makes noise. There’d be people on the podium trying to stop the vote,” Gama points out.

The current moment is one of calm in parliament, due to the end-of-year recess. On the one hand, it may be good news for the government, since it does not directly affect its legislative agenda.

On the other hand, the absence of other issues under discussion amplifies the exposure of the inquiry against Flávio Bolsonaro in the press.

In this regard, one of the trends to watch out for is how public opinion might behave in the face of new facts, from the government’s evaluation surveys.

Amid the current administration’s weakness in dealing with parliament, a potential drop in popularity could have even more severe effects.

Source: Infomoney

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