Brazil’s suffers fourth consecutive month of downward revisions to 2021 crop forecast

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The 2021 agricultural harvest is expected to be 256.1 million tons, up 0.8% from the 2020 result, or 1.9 million tons more. The data come from the July systematic survey of agricultural production released Tuesday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Compared to the June survey, estimated production this year fell 0.9%, decreasing 2.4 million tons.

It was the fourth consecutive month of downward revisions to 2021 agricultural production estimates. Still, the July LSPA estimate signals another record in the historical series in 1975, although it is only slightly higher than the 2020 record.

Brazilian growers are also expected to harvest 68.2 million hectares in the 2021 crop year, a 4.3% increase over the 2020 crop area. The result is 2.8 million more hectares in one year. Compared to the June LSPA, the increase was 177.6 thousand hectares, up 0.3%.

Grains

Brazilian grain production is expected to reach 253.98 million tons in the 2020/21 harvest, down 1.2% from the previous harvest (257 million tons).

According to Conab, despite an increase in planted area of about 4%, the decline in production is mainly due to the decrease in estimated yields in the second crop, due to the damage caused by the prolonged drought in the main producing regions, as well as low temperatures with frost in the states of the south-central region of the country.

Among the most damaged crops is corn. Total production is expected to reach 86.65 million tons, down 15.5% from 2019/20 (102.59 million tons).

The first crop, summer, is estimated at 24.9 million tons (-11% compared to 25.69 million tons in 2019/20). The second crop, safrinha or winter, is expected to be 60.32 million t (-19.6% compared to 75.05 million t).

The third crop, grown in the north/northeast, could reach 1.43 million t (-22% vs. 1.84 million t).

According to Conab, the decrease in estimated productivity for the second grain crop only is 25.7%, which corresponds to a forecast of 4,065 kilograms per hectare. The state-owned company stresses that the decline was not greater because high grain prices led to an 8.1% expansion of the cultivated area to 14.87 million hectares.

In addition, Mato Grosso, the main producing state, was least affected by adverse weather conditions during the grain harvest.

When the harvest is completed, soybean production in this 2020/21 crop will increase by 11.1 million tons. This leaves Brazil as the world’s largest producer of oilseeds with a record crop of 135.9 million tons, up 8.9% from 2019/20 (124.84 million tons).

For rice, production in this cycle increased by 5% compared to the previous period, reaching 11.74 million t compared to 11.18 million t in 2019/20.

In beans, attention is focused on the third crop, which is in the early stages of harvest. Total production is estimated at 2.94 million tons, down 8.8% from the 2019/2020 crop (3.22 million tons), due to the impact of drought in the country’s main producing regions.

Cotton production is expected to reach 2.34 million tons in 2020/21, down 22% from the previous period (3 million tons).

Conab also highlights wheat among winter crops. In the current harvest, production is expected to reach 8.6 million tons (37.8% more than in 2020, when production reached 6.23 million tons), setting a new record for the country if the estimate is confirmed. As sowing has already been completed, the area under cereals has increased by 15.1% to 2.7 million hectares.

However, weather conditions on farms may affect the results. Conab has yet to quantify the impact of the frosts recorded in the main producing regions in recent weeks.

According to Conab, high prices on the international market have promoted the product in recent years. In addition to the external valuation, the high cost of corn in the national scenario has also promoted wheat cultivation, as it is a possible substitute for use as animal feed.