IBGE reduces estimate for Brazil’s 2021 record grain harvest by 1.6%

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Brazilian grain harvest in 2021 is expected to reach 258.5 million tons, 1.7% higher than last year, or the equivalent to 4.4 million tons, informed the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in its new Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), announced on Thursday (8). Compared to last month’s estimate, there was a drop of 1.6% (4.2 million tons).

According to the IBGE, the production of soybeans should grow 9.7%, with a record 133.3 million tons. The production of rice, in turn, was estimated at 11.2 million tons, a volume 1.5% greater than that of 2020.

On the other hand, corn production is expected to decline by 8%, totaling 95 million tons. The expected falls are 3% in the first crop and 9.7% in the “safrinha” late harvest.

Rice, corn, and soy represent 92.6% of the estimated production and account for 87.9% of the area to be harvested in the country in 2021, according to IBGE. In relation to 2020, there were increases of 6.7% in the corn area (2.5% in the first harvest and 8.2% in the second) and 4.3% in the soybean area, and decreases in the cotton and rice areas of 16.1% and 0.1%, respectively.

The total area under cultivation in the country is 68.1 million hectares, 4% (or 2.6 million hectares) larger than the 2020 area and 0.1% (85,900 hectares) larger than forecast in the survey published last month.

The estimates for soybean, barley, wheat, and oat production grew, 0.3% (345,300 tons), 1.9% (8,500 tons), 0.1% (4,500 tons) and 0.4% (3,700 tons), respectively, in relation to the projections released a month ago.

IBGE reduced its forecasts for the harvests of 2nd-crop corn (-5.6%, or 4.1 million tons), sorghum (-7%, or  198,400 tons), rice (-1.2%, or 141,800 tons), beans 2nd harvest (-5.7%, or 58,600 tons), corn 1st harvest (-0.2%, or 41,100 tons), beans 3rd harvest (-4.3%, or 25,000 tons) and beans 1st harvest (-1.4%, or 17,600 tons).

Mato Grosso is the highest grain-producing state in the country, with 27.4% of the total, according to IBGE. In sequence appear Paraná (14.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (14.2%), Goiás (9.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.2%), and Minas Gerais (6.3%).