In Brazil, 97 Percent of Covid-19 Pandemic Could End in June, Study Says

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A study released on Tuesday, April 28th, by the University of Technology and Design of Singapore estimates that the end of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Brazil is likely to occur between June and August this year. According to the data, 97 percent of the pandemic will end on June 1st in the country, and 100 percent of the situation would be normalised by August 23rd.

However, because the study was based on official data, it may not reflect reality. That is because in Brazil, the explosion of deaths from respiratory diseases and deaths recorded in notaries suggest a significant underreporting of covid-19 cases.

On Tuesday, April 28th, the country reached the mark of 5,017 deaths by the novel coronavirus and, with this result, joined the list of the ten countries with the highest record of victims of the disease.

However, data show that with over 2,500 potentially unnotified cases, Brazil may be the country with the sixth-most deaths – behind only the United States, Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom. According to the university’s survey, the peak of the disease in Brazil was reached around April 20th.

According to the University’s study, in the global scenario, 97 percent of the pandemic is expected to end on May 30th, and the situation would be under full control by December 1st this year.

Worldwide, there are now over 3.1 million infections and over 216,000 deaths from covid-19. The data are from a real-time survey conducted by Johns Hopinks University.

In the United States, the country with the highest number of infections – more than one million – the end of the pandemic is expected on September 9th. According to the data, the coronavirus has already reached its peak in the country.

In China, the epicenter of the disease, the pandemic ended on April 8th. The Asian country has already seen its infection figures stabilize at 84,000 cases for about a month.

In Europe, one of the most affected continents in the world, the end of the coronavirus is expected at different dates in August. Italy: 31st; Spain: 2nd; France: 9th; Germany: 6th.

As part of the methodology, the study was based on the CRS epidemiological model, used in the study of epidemics, which considers sensitive individuals (S), infected (I) and removed (R). Those considered sensitive are individuals not infected with, or susceptible to, the virus.

The infected are individuals who have been contaminated and are able to pass on the disease. Finally, those removed are individuals who no longer have the virus, either by immunization or because they died. One of the main criticisms to the CRS model for pandemic assessment is precisely the underreporting of cases.

The researchers who conducted the study alerted that the dates should be considered with caution, because there are several variables not covered by the study that may influence the length of the pandemic.

These variables are factors such as demographic issues in each country, the chance of the same individual being infected more than once by the disease, and the rate of population compliance to measures to fight the coronavirus, such as social isolation and quarantine.

Source: Exame

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