ICL Projection: Brazil Has World’s Highest Rate of Coronavirus Contagion

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil has the highest number of Covid-19 infections among 48 countries analyzed by the Imperial College of London (ICL).

The indicator, also known as ‘R’, shows how many other people are infected with the disease by each infected person.

The higher the ‘R’, the faster the spread, and the greater risk of a potential overload on the health system.

In the week that started on Monday, April 26th, the ‘R’ in Brazil stood at 2.81: that is, each infected person passes the disease on to almost 3 people, according to the estimates of the university’s center of infectious diseases (CRM), one of the most reputable in the world in the study of epidemics.

In several countries of the world, governments have considered that mobility restrictions can only be relaxed with no risk to the health system if the transmission number is below one.

In Germany, regarded as one of the most successful nations in controlling the disease, the transmission rate estimated by the CRM is 0.8 (ranging from 0.65 to 1.14).

Along with the United States, Brazil is one of the only two countries with more than 5,000 deaths projected for the next week, and the trend is for growth in contagions, according to the study, signed by 47 researchers.

The institute estimates the trend of contagion and the number of deaths next week for the 48 countries that this week counted at least 100 deaths from coronavirus since the outbreak of the pandemic and at least ten deaths in each of the two preceding weeks.

Brazil is one of the nine countries in which coronavirus infection is on the rise. The same occurs in Canada, India, Ireland, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, and Russia.

Based on estimates, coronavirus transmission is decreasing in four of the 48 countries studied: Italy, France, Spain, and the Dominican Republic. In 23, including Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Colombia, and the USA, it has stabilized (see full list below).

The trend is uncertain in 12 nations, including Argentina and South Korea, the study says.

Regarding the projected number of deaths for next week, Brazil and the United States are in the “very high” category, above 5,000. There are ten countries in the “high” category (from 1,000 to 5,000), and 14 in the “relatively high” category (from 100 to 1,000).

In 22 countries, the study points to a “relatively low” (less than 100) number of deaths next week.

In order to project deaths for the following week, the Imperial College bases its estimates on the published death toll figures, which are considered more reliable than confirmed cases (in which the testing policy may have a major impact).

The accuracy of estimates varies according to the quality of data collection and reporting in each country. In those where there is a failure to disclose data, projections may be underestimated.

The center also points out that transmission estimates reflect the epidemiological situation at the time of infection of Covid-19 death cases. That is, the impact of control measures shows a lag of about ten days.

Underestimated numbers

A further aim of the study is to analyze case accounting by country. The numbers of deaths reported are compared with those of cases reported by the country, in order to determine whether the proportion between the two data is as expected.

The premises for this analysis are that all deaths have been reported and that the interval between the confirmation of a case and death is on average ten days (with a standard deviation of two days) and the mortality rate per confirmed case is 1.38 percent (from 1.23 percent to 1.53 percent, with a 95 percent confidence index).

Based on these parameters, the CRM estimates that the number of confirmed cases in Brazil is 10.4 percent of the actual number, the sixth lowest among the 48 countries, ahead of Hungary with 10.3 percent, and behind the United Kingdom with 10.6 percent. Mexico is the country with the highest underreporting of cases: based on the number of reported deaths, the number of confirmed cases is 5.8 percent of the total actual number.

The most accurate countries in reporting the number of cases, according to the Imperial College analysis, are Israel (100 percent of the reported actual cases) and Saudi Arabia, at 93 percent.

By April 26th, more than 2.8 million cases of Covid-19 had been confirmed worldwide, with more than 190,000 deaths.

TRANSMISSION ON THE RISE

• Brazil
• Canada
• India
• Ireland
• Mexico
• Pakistan
• Peru
• Poland
• Russia

DOWNWARD TRANSMISSION

• Italy
• Spain
• France
• Dominican Republic

STABLE TRANSMISSION

• Germany
• Algeria
• Bangladesh
• Belgium
• Colombia
• Ecuador
• Egypt
• United States
• Philippines
• Greece
• Netherlands
• Indonesia
• Iran
• Israel
• Panama
• Portugal
• United Kingdom
• Czech Republic
• Romania
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• Turkey
• Ukraine

UNCERTAIN TREND

• Saudi Arabia
• Argentina
• Austria
• Chile
• South Korea
• Denmark
• Finland
• Hungary
• Japan
• Morocco
• Norway
• Serbia

Source: Folhapress