Christmas and New Year’s Eve Parties Could Trigger Second Pandemic Wave in Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – After the relaxation of restriction measures to curb the pandemic, the case and death figures caused by the novel coronavirus have again climbed.

While the political debate is contaminating the vaccination strategies, there is concern over the so-called second wave of infections, which, according to experts who took part in the “E Agora, Brasil?” (“And Now, Brazil?”) debate, will hit the country in early January, after the end-of-year parties.

The event was promoted last Thursday by O GLOBO and Valor Econômico newspapers, sponsored by the ‘Sistema Comércio’, through the CNC (National Trade Confederation), SESC (Social Service of Commerce), SENAC (National Service for Commercial Training) and its Federations.

“Christmas and New Year’s Eve parties will bring the second wave to Brazil,” alerted Fiocruz pulmonologist and researcher Margareth Dalcolmo. “We will have the saddest January in our history because we failed to raise citizens’ awareness of the gravity of what we are experiencing.”

According to the expert, the epidemic “changed places”: it left the streets and entered homes, because young people, believing they were invulnerable, abandoned social isolation and brought the coronavirus to their parents and grandparents.”

“I’m sorry, but there can be no Christmas parties. You can gather a maximum of six or seven people, at the risk of exposing our loved ones to a risk they don’t deserve,” said Margareth. “And there won’t be a New Year’s Eve party, so that we will be alive for the ones to come.”

Same precautions in 2021

Drauzio Varella pointed out that vaccination, although it is already occurring in other countries, is still a distant dream for Brazilians. Moreover, the vaccine is not a definitive solution, said the specialist. The coronavirus will continue to circulate, and the safety measures should be maintained.

“I think that, unfortunately, many people will die because of the end-of-year parties, amid this illusion that now we have a vaccine and the problem is behind us,” said the doctor. “In 2021 we’ll need to take the same precautions: walk wearing masks, preventing crowds, everything will be the same. Any other message is false, it doesn’t conform to reality.”

Margareth alerted to the risks of the anti-vaccine discourse and of supporting ineffective treatments, including by members of the medical community. Experts recognize the difficulty in maintaining isolation and care, but they are still the only effective means of preventing the disease.

Economist Monica de Bolle highlighted the aggravating fact that the second wave – or the continuation of the first, given that the pandemic has never been controlled in Brazil – will hit the country at a time when the population will not be protected by the emergency aid, and the government, with the end of the calamity, will have little budget leeway.

“The risk we run is that we will have a kind of social upheaval, that the population will take to the streets. We haven’t seen this yet, but it’s getting harder and harder to believe that it won’t happen.”