Lula would win in a runoff against Bolsonaro in 2022, according to poll

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would beat the current president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, in a possible second round in the presidential elections of 2022, in which both are emerging as potential candidates, according to a poll released Wednesday, May 12.

According to the survey released by the Datafolha firm, one of the most prestigious in the country, ex-president Lula (2003-2010), who recovered his political rights just over two months ago after a Supreme Court decision, would win with 55% of the votes against 32% of the leader of the Brazilian far-right, who will probably seek re-election in next year’s elections.

The Workers’ Party (PT) leader would obtain a comfortable margin in the first round with 41% of the votes, against 23% for the former Army reserve captain. When no candidate obtains 50% + 1 of the valid votes, a second round is required.

The poll, conducted among 2,071 Brazilians between May 11 and 12 and which has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, also included as eventual candidates former judge and minister Sergio Moro (7%), former progressive candidate Ciro Gomes (6%), TV presenter Luciano Huck (4%) and the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (3%), Bolsonaro’s main rival in the conservative camp.

This is the first poll of voting intentions conducted by the Datafolha firm since Supreme Court Judge Edson Fachin annulled 4 trials against Lula in Curitiba courts due to a conflict of competencies and decided that the cases should be restarted in other courts, thus annulling the sentences of almost 26 years of imprisonment that weighed against him.

After the annulment of the convictions, Lula, 75, recovered his political rights, which were taken away in 2018 after his conviction for corruption had been affirmed by an appellate court, which under the “Ficha Limpa” law prevented him from being a candidate in that year’s elections.

Bolsonaro then won in the second round with 65% of the votes against the progressive candidate Fernando Haddad, Lula’s political protégé.

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