One-third of the world’s daily deaths: Three key figures to understand the pandemic in Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (BBC Brasil) The pandemic tragedy in Brazil has reached such alarming numbers that it is increasingly difficult to dimension the deaths that happen in the country and still compare them to the rest of the world. Moreover, groups that deny the seriousness of the pandemic use comparisons with proportional data and absolute data.

In any case, it is possible to affirm today that Brazil concentrates one-third of the daily deaths by Covid in the world, although having only 3% of the world’s population. Moreover, more people died in March in Brazil than in the entire pandemic in 109 countries having 1.6 billion total inhabitants.

Furthermore, official data from Brazilian hospitals point out that the number of Covid-19 deaths may have already passed 443,000, almost 120,000 more than the Bolsonaro government’s statistics. The same estimate points out that about 4,000 people die every day in the country.

BBC News Brasil presents below three graphs to help understand Brazil’s situation and how it compares to other countries. Daily deaths, deaths throughout the entire pandemic, speed of vaccination, and when Brazil is expected to reach 500,000 deaths per covid.

1. Today, Brazil has 3% of the world’s population and 33% of the world’s deaths per day

The world population totals almost 7.8 billion people. On March 31, 2021, 11,769 covid deaths were recorded in all the world countries combined.

Brazil, with 212 million inhabitants, represents 2.7% of the total population. On March 31, 2021, 3,869 people died from covid.

That is, for every 100 people in the world, 3 are Brazilian. And out of every 100 daily deaths in the world, 33 occur in Brazil.

2. Covid killed more in March in Brazil than the entire pandemic in 109 countries combined
One of the main arguments of the people who minimize the seriousness of the pandemic in Brazil is the population’s size. They claim that it is not fair to compare Brazil with countries with fewer inhabitants.

In other words, according to this perspective, Brazil, third in the total number of deaths, would only be among the nations with the most deaths because it is the sixth most populous in the world.

And if population size is taken into account, Brazil would be the 17th worst off, behind countries like the United States, Italy, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Mexico.

But experts point out that this kind of comparison hides the country’s current situation and mixes data from countries in different phases of the pandemic.

Below are two comparisons taking into account the size of the population and the country’s current situation.

A. In March, more people died from Covid-19 in Brazil than in 109 countries combined during the entire pandemic. There were 66,573 deaths in Brazil, versus 64,571 deaths over 12 months In 109 countries.

This group of countries includes 36 countries with a Human Development Index (HDI) higher than Brazil and 26 with more than 20 million inhabitants. Among these are South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, and Vietnam.

B. In comparing the current rate of deaths per 1 million inhabitants, Brazil has the sixth-worst situation globally, behind only Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Seychelles, Czech Republic, and Bulgaria. All have fewer than 11 million inhabitants.

3. Brazil ranks 18th in immunization rates

There are several ways to compare the vaccination rate among the countries. In total numbers, Brazil ranks fifth, with 18 million doses distributed. But, as mentioned above, even those who minimize the gravity of the situation advocate that comparisons consider the size of the population.

In this case, Brazil plummets to 18th place globally, with 9 doses for every 100 inhabitants. The leader is Israel, with 116 doses per 100 people.

These numbers do not consider those who received one or two doses (which would guarantee the vaccine’s full effectiveness). So far, Brazil has vaccinated 7% of its population with at least one dose. The UK has vaccinated 45%, Chile 35%, and the US 29%.

Comparing the current rate of vaccination, Brazil is in 13th place. Two people are vaccinated out of every 1,000 inhabitants per day. In Uruguay, it is 10 per 1,000.

4. Projections for the near future: 500,000 deaths by May?

The lack of precise data about the pandemic situation, something Brazil is facing since March 2020, makes it very difficult to analyze what happens today and what might happen a month from now, for example.

But some mathematical models try, with all the limitations of lack of data and uncertainties, to present a picture closer to reality than the official data.

Officially, Brazil ended the month of March with the tragic mark of 321,000 deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. But Brazilian hospital records indicate that the number of people who died due to confirmed or suspected cases of the disease in the country may have already passed 443,000.

This figure was released on April 1 by Leonardo Bastos, a statistician and public health researcher at the Scientific Computing Program of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz). He leads nowcasting analyses in a partnership involving Mave, Fiocruz’s team of Analytical Methods in Epidemiological Surveillance, and the Covid-19 BR Observatory, which brings together scientists from several institutions (such as Fiocruz, USP, UFMA, UFSC, MIT, and Harvard).

Estimates indicate that 4,000 people died per day in Brazil this week due to suspected or confirmed cases of Covid-19 in hospitals in the country.

Furthermore, the trend is for the situation to continue getting worse. Imperial College London points out that the country’s contagion rate currently stands at 1.12. A pandemic only recedes when that number falls below 1.

Projections from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States indicate that the worst-case scenario is quite likely to materialize, and Brazil will pass 516,000 covid deaths by May 9.

Given the suspected underreporting, however, this milestone could occur as early as the end of April if the situation does not improve.