Bolsonaro’s Impeachment Supported by 54 Percent of Brazilians, Says Survey

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The public war waged between President Jair Bolsonaro and former Justice Minister Sérgio Moro, with accusations of political interference in the command of the Federal Police (PF), has led to an unprecedented undermining of the president’s public image: for the first time in the series of surveys conducted by consulting firm Atlas Político, the majority of those interviewed (54 percent) say they favor impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro.

The President had been experiencing a decline in his government’s approval ratings since February, due to his erratic behavior during the Coronavirus crisis and his poor economic performance during this period, but the consequences of the resignation of his most popular Minister directly impacted his political capital: 64.4 percent responded that they disapprove of Bolsonaro’s performance, while only 30 percent approve of him.

Meanwhile, ex-Minister Sérgio Moro strengthened his public image and saw his approval rating rise to 57 percent, a rate he had not achieved since suspicions were raised over his performance as a judge following the leaking of messages from members of the Lava Jato task force.

Last Friday, Moro resigned as Minister of Justice and Public Safety. At the time, he made serious accusations against President Bolsonaro for intending to interfere in Federal Police investigations, dismissing the force’s Director-General, Maurício Valeixo, behind the back of his then-Minister. Bolsonaro rebutted these claims in a rambling statement made that same day, in which he accused Moro of lying and denied any intention of interfering with the Federal Police.

Both were involved in a political battle in the midst of the most serious health crisis of the century, that has affected their public images. In this tug-of-war -as shown by the Atlas Político survey of 2,000 people between April 24th and 26th- the President’s image has suffered the most damage.

The survey, which has a plus-or-minus two percentage points margin of error, shows that 68 percent of respondents disagree with Bolsonaro’s dismissal of Valeixo, and 72 percent agree with Moro’s criticism of the President, principally allegations of attempting to politically interfere in PF investigations.

“There is an unprecedented drop in the President’s positive image in our historical series. This is reflected in several related questions, such as the impeachment question. For the first time, we observe a majority in its favor at a time when more is being discussed about it, which may put popular pressure on Congress,” says political scientist Andrei Roman, the developer of the Atlas Político.

The clash between Bolsonaro and Moro has brought impeachment back into public debate. Opposition parties have increased pressure in the Chamber of Deputies to launch impeachment proceedings. The Chamber head has now received at least 19 motions accusing the President of impeachable crimes, eight of which have been brought this year. And a twentieth motion is expected to be lodged within the next few days, ironically by the very party that elected Bolsonaro, the PSL (Social Liberal Party).

According to the Atlas Político survey, 58 percent of women are in favor of impeaching the President, while among men the percentage drops to 49. Analyzing the answers according to religious belief, the President still enjoys strong support from evangelicals, who have a significant legislative base in Congress.

Among the evangelicals, only 39 percent are in favor of impeachment and 53 percent are against it. Among Catholics, these percentages are 59 percent in favor of impeachment and 29 percent against it.

Parallel to the meltdown of Bolsonaro’s public image, Sérgio Moro sees his name strengthen politically before public opinion. The Minister had his image tarnished with the so-called “Vaza Jato” leaks, when he had 48 percent approval. It has rebounded and, during the coronavirus crisis, remained stable at around 53 percent approval in a survey on April 15th.

By starting the public clash with the President, Moro saw his approval grow again and reach the percentage he had before suspicions over his performance as a Lava Jato judge. Among the ten political leaders included in the survey, Moro’s approval rate was second only to that of Henrique Mandetta, the former Minister of Health who was dismissed by Bolsonaro for differences over the conduct of the coronavirus crisis.

For the first time, Bolsonaro now has a higher rejection rate than ex-president Lula. The President was elected in 2018 with a strongly polarized discourse, in which he fought leftists. Bolsonaro is also less popular than the Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes, whose approval rate is only slightly lower than that of Mandetta and Moro.

Political leaders in the opposition, such as Lula and Fernando Haddad, have not increased in terms of approval in the midst of the crisis.

“Bolsonaro is worn out, and the left-wing is failing to capitalize on it, by the formal opposition to the government. Lula and Haddad’s performance remains the same. But these new right-wing figures, such as Mandetta and Moro, have emerged and are positioning themselves as strong competitors for [elections in] 2022,” Andrei Roman says.

Source: El País