Analysis: Judge Nunes on Brazil’s Supreme Court Would Seal Bolsonaro Deal with Centrão

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – On Wednesday, President Jair Bolsonaro again made use of what is known as a “trial balloon” in Brasilia jargon. He made public throughout the political world his potential nomination for the position of Federal Supreme Court Justice.

Kássio Nunes Marques, 48, is an attorney who became a judge in 2011 when he was appointed to the Federal Appeals Court of the 1st Region (TRF-1) by then-president Dilma Rousseff. Critical of the positions of Operation Lava Jato and a Catholic with no obvious alignment with conservative customs, the President’s suggestion runs counter to what he had been voicing, that he wanted a “terribly evangelical” name for Celso de Mello’s post, who is leaving the Court on October 13th.

However, it demonstrates an increasingly intimate closeness of the Planalto with the Centrão, the notorious bloc of center-right parties in Congress that he used to refer to as “old politics”. Nunes enjoys the backing of the PP (Progressives) party president, Ciro Nogueira, also a native of Piauí, a leader of the Centrão who has already become a target of Lava Jato.

The Centrão’s influence in the new phase of the Bolsonaro Government is widespread. The strategy of launching names to be analyzed by the press, by his supporters and, particularly in this case, by the senators who either approve or veto a nominee to the STF, is something that the President has been doing lately under the guidance of his allies in the bloc.

The likely nomination of the Judge also comes at a time when Bolsonaro has just replaced 10 of his 13 deputy leaders in the Congress and made room for representatives of all parties that now formally make up the ruling base. It is a more traditional arrangement of the Planalto’s relationship with Congress, in what is known as “coalition presidentialism”.

It is no coincidence that the removed leaders are members of the PSL (Social Liberal Party), Bolsonaro’s former party that comprises several right-wing and far-right positions, but have been losing space in the government’s new setup. Deputies in the group, like Daniel Silveira (PSL-Rio), and digital influencers of the Bolsonarist base have now protested on social media against the nod to Kássio Nunes, someone they consider excessively “into the system” for ultraconservative aspirations.

The contrast became clear when Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), who in recent months began to say in jest that he is “Bolsonaro’s #5”, celebrated the Judge’s potential appointment. Nogueira has in the past been an ally of Fernando Henrique’s PSDB (Social Democratic Party), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma’s PT (Workers’ Party), and Michel Temer’s MDB (Democratic Movement). He is investigated in Operation Lava Jato and a key player in the Centrão.

In recent days, deputy prosecutor general Lindôra Araújo, considered close to the Planalto, has requested the shelving of a complaint against Arthur Lira (PP-AL), one of the Centrão’s main leaders and a candidate for the Chamber presidency, a key position for Bolsonaro to ensure support in Congress. Lira has been accused of being paid R$1.6 million in kickbacks from building company Queiroz Galvão.

Judge Nunes, as he is known, was also celebrated among other figures in the National Congress. He is viewed as a “guarantor” magistrate, shorthand among the legal community for a stickler for procedural guarantees and an expanded presumption of innocence.

The so-called guarantors typically analyze the arguments of Operation Lava Jato with great reservations. In other words, it is everything that a political class – bogged down in a string of criminal scandals, from Mensalão to Lava Jato, from fake news to splitting schemes – wants the most. The judge was considered a potential candidate for a vacancy in the Federal Superior Court (STJ), Brazil’s second-highest, which will become open in December with the retirement of Judge Napoleão Nunes Maia, but he now seems to have moved up a level.

The dog-and-pony show involving Judge Nunes has involved other key players, within the highly politicized judicial world. On Tuesday, Bolsonaro took Nunes to the home of STF Justice Gilmar Mendes – a notorious “guarantor” magistrate. He was joined by the STF Presiding Justice, José Antônio Dias Toffoli, the Minister of Communications, Fábio Faria, and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre.

There are many interests at stake. One is that of Senator Alcolumbre, who is interested in appointing an ally, as he seeks authorization from the Supreme Court to interpret the Federal Constitution in a way that will permit him to run for re-election to the Congress presidency.

Known for discretion, Nunes Marques made the national news when he decided to overturn a lower court injunction suspending an STF bid to purchase catering supplies, which included luxury items such as lobster. The purchases were another incident used by critics of the Court, particularly vocal members of the Bolsonarist base. According to BBC Brasil’s analysis, Nunes is also on the same page as the Bolsonaro Government in judging indigenous, environmental, and agricultural sector issues. In 2019, the Judge vetoed the withdrawal of non-indigenous people from the Bororo ethnic group in Mato Grosso.

Bolsonaro’s decision to propose Nunes, unofficially, seems to have less to do with this profile and more with the resistance the President had met from the Supreme Court to his two previous favorites, in order: Minister Jorge Oliveira (General Staff) and Minister André Mendonça (Justice). Oliveira is a retired military police officer with less than ten years of legal training, which would hardly prove outstanding knowledge of the law. And Mendonça has recently been frowned upon after one of his subordinates produced a file naming supposed anti-fascist police officers and civil servants, as well as because he tried to prevent ex-Minister of Education Abraham Weintraub from being interrogated in the Supreme Court’s fake news inquiry.

However, behind the scenes, some are already resisting the judge’s appointment. Not for technical reasons, since he has a master’s degree and a doctorate in law, 26 years of legal practice, and acting as a judge in the TRF-1. Rather because some feel there is a line of jurists who deserve to take a seat in the highest Court. Justice Luiz Fux, who has just been appointed the STF Presiding Justice, also expressed his opinion. He believes that the nominee should be a career judge and that he should already be on the STJ, as is Judge Luís Felipe Salomão.

The President’s official decision has not yet been made. The new Bolsonaro, embracing the old politics, should do so soon, probably within two weeks.

Source: El País

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