Support For Bolsonaro Grows, While Moro and Guedes’ Image Dwindles

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The image of President Jair Bolsonaro has remained virtually unscathed, despite the turbulence surrounding his administration.

This is reflected in the latest survey by the consulting firm Atlas Político, released on Wednesday, July 15th, which considers a month marked by the arrest of Fabrício Queiroz, suspected of being the operator of the salary kickback scheme involving Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro; raids by the Federal Police against Bolsonarists; and the failed appointment of Carlos Alberto Decotelli, who, exposed for cheating on his résumé, lasted only five days in the Ministry of Education.

The survey also points to a consolidation in the popularity decline of Sérgio Moro and Paulo Guedes, who joined the government with the status of super-ministers and took different paths in view of the growing political crisis amid the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the online survey, which interviewed 2,000 people between June 27th and 30th, with a sample that reflects Brazil’s adult population, approval for the President’s performance has stabilized at 32 percent, after dropping by five percentage points between April and May, with disapproval fluctuating from 65 to 64 percent. The rejection of his government, still disapproved by the majority, also dropped from 58 to 56 percent, against a 25 percent approval rating.

For political scientist Andrei Roman, creator of the Atlas Político, the survey shows that Bolsonaro may have managed to contain the drain on his popularity that brought him down following the traumatic resignation of ex-Minister of Justice and Public Safety Moro, compounded by his erratic conduct in controlling the pandemic.

“Moro’s departure was a much more cataclysmic event for the President’s image than Queiroz’s arrest or the embarrassment with Decotelli,” Roman said. “Once he overcomes this shake-up, other crises may wear him down, but not on the same magnitude as Moro.”

The researcher considers that the political scenario in Brazil, formerly polarized between Bolsonaro supporters and the left-wing, has gained a third significant power center with the rise of the center-right bloc, embodied by Bolsonarist dissidents, which probably affects not only the President’s assessment, but also those who surround him or emerge as potential competitors in the 2022 election.

This is true for Sergio Moro, who, after his popularity climbed (from 54 to 57 percent) when he stepped down from the government, is now experiencing successive approval declines, reaching the lowest level (37 percent) since the polls began. From April to June, the percentage of those evaluating him negatively increased from 31 to 50 percent.

“With the electorate divided into three poles, it’s only natural that Sérgio Moro’s popularity has plummeted, particularly due to the loss of support from many Bolsonarists,” Roman explains. Paulo Guedes, the Minister of Economy, is also suffering from the split between Moro and Bolsonaro. Since April, when, unlike Moro, he decided to remain in government and reached his lowest disapproval rate (38 percent) in a year, the index of those who reject him has risen by more than 10 percentage points, from 38 to 49 percent.

“Guedes stood in the middle of this feud between Morists and Bolsonarists. Nevertheless, he is still an anchor of popularity for the government, with greater approval than the President,” says the Atlas Político’s executive director.

Among the political leaders named in the survey, Paulo Guedes (38 percent) and Moro (37 percent) only lose in approval to Luiz Henrique Mandetta (50 percent). However, the ex-Minister of Health has also seen his popularity, which broke a record in April (63 percent), fall in recent months.

For the first time, the survey assessed the image of Vice-President Hamilton Mourão. With a lower rejection than Bolsonaro (46 vs 64 percent), he comes behind only Mandetta, Guedes, and Moro among the most approved leaders (33 percent), one percentage point above the President. The most popular left-wing leader is still ex-president Lula (28 percent), followed by Fernando Haddad (24 percent) and Ciro Gomes (23 percent), two presidential candidates defeated by Bolsonaro in the 2018 election.

The survey also assessed Brazilians’ opinion on the hypothetical establishment of a military dictatorship in the country. According to Atlas Político, 87 percent of the population is against the return of an exceptional regime and seven percent are in favor. In November 2019, support for the military dictatorship amounted to 14 percent, against 75 percent who opposed the idea. Support for Bolsonaro’s impeachment also lost momentum, but continues to be advocated by the majority of respondents (from 58 to 55 percent).

With Moro distant from the spotlight and a more moderate stance towards other powers, the President gained strength by withstanding the loss of his most popular Minister, notes Andrei Roman. “There seems to be a pacification of the Bolsonarist electorate with the Moro issue, more and more distant. Which suggests it will take a much greater shock than his departure to erode the President’s image.”

Regarding the coronavirus pandemic, 77 percent of respondents fear contracting the disease and 70 percent are more concerned about people who may die from the Covid-19 than about the economic impact of the crisis, while 73 percent say they agree with the social isolation measures imposed by mayors and governors. However, 48 percent said they had left their homes the day before the survey.

Source: El País

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