Study Shows Covid-19 Cases May Be Evolving in More Controlled Manner in Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The novel coronavirus epidemic in Brazil is developing in a more controlled way than in other countries such as China, Italy, Spain and the United States. This slower growth in the number of cases may be related to the fact that the country took containment measures at the very outset of the epidemic.

However, experts alert that this may also be attributed to underreporting and delayed notification of cases. The situation is more severe in São Paulo, where there are over 10,000 delayed tests.

The findings are contained in the fifth technical note of the PUC-RJ and Fiocruz expert team, the Health Operations and Intelligence Center (NOIS), which is monitoring the development of covid-19 in Brazil compared to other countries. The team has been making short-term projections in three scenarios: optimistic, median and pessimistic.

The new note, released on Wednesday, April 1st, reports that between March 21st and 22nd, confirmed cases in Brazil exceeded the pessimistic projection, suggesting a rapid growth of the epidemic compared to other countries.

However, in the two following days, the confirmed cases stood between the median and the pessimistic scenario, which showed a decreasing growth trend. This trend was confirmed between March 24th and 30th, when the figures ranged from the optimistic scenario to the median scenario.

According to the work, signed by 14 experts, “although part of this effect may be the result of containment measures, it should be noted that Brazil faces two difficulties in measuring the total number of positive cases identified: the absence of a broad testing policy and the delay in obtaining results and notifications”.

Also according to the survey, “the first statement is due to the fact that there are not enough tests to analyze the development of the disease in the population. The second is due to the increased demand for testing, associated with the lack of resources and skilled labor to perform rapid analysis”.

This issue is particularly notable in São Paulo. The State closed the analyzed period with 1,517 confirmed cases, lower than the previously projected optimistic scenario, suggesting a growth trend similar to that of the optimistic scenario.

However, the report states that there are accounts of a large number of tests – over 10,000 – pending at the Adolfo Lutz Institute in São Paulo.