Brazilian Cities Least (and Most) Vulnerable to Covid-19

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Colina, in the interior of the state of São Paulo, is the Brazilian city least vulnerable to covid-19, a disease caused by the coronavirus, according to the Municipal Vulnerability Index (IVM), developed last week by the Votorantim Institute to map the pandemic scenario in the country.

The study places São Bernardo do Campo, an industrial city in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, in second place, followed by Nova Lima, just outside the capital of Minas Gerais state.

But what makes a city more or less vulnerable? The number of available beds in the ICU and ventilators are major indicators, but not the only ones. In addition to these, the IVM considers factors such as the proportion of the elderly population, the GDP per capita, and the city’s fiscal situation.

The Index ranges from 0 to 100: the higher the figure, the higher the vulnerability.

“We realize that the fact that a municipality has more elderly people, for one, this has a greater impact on its ability to deal with the disease than its fiscal situation since the government has released emergency funds during the pandemic,” says Rafael Gioielli, general manager of the Votorantim Institute.

The municipalities most vulnerable to the disease are located in the North and Northeast regions. Mojuí dos Campos, in Pará, is in the worst situation, followed by Wanderley and Ibirataia, both in Bahia.

While in Colina there are 50 ICU beds and 81 ventilators per 100,000 inhabitants, Mojuí dos Campos has ten for both factors. Ibirataia has eight ICU beds per 100,000 inhabitants and 13 ventilators for the same proportion, and Wanderley, no beds, and three respirators.

São Bernardo do Campo and Nova Lima, the second and third least vulnerable Brazilian cities, have, respectively, 27 and 23 ICU beds per 100 thousand inhabitants, and 56 and 41 ventilators for the same proportion, respectively.

Altogether, the index has eighteen indicators distributed in five topic pillars of different shares: vulnerable population (share: 32.35 percent), local economy (share: 11.76 percent), health system structure (share: 23.53 percent), health system organization (share: 20.59 percent) and fiscal capacity of the municipal administration (share: 11.76 percent).

“Brazil is a gigantic country with many needs, in addition to not having a comprehensive health service. That’s why these technical criteria help us determine where it’s most urgent and relevant to invest: in the interior of São Paulo or in Pará,” Gioielli says.

The survey used only public data from different bases, such as the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Unified Health System (SUS), the National Registry of Health Establishments (CNES), and the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANSS).

Gioielli says that, at first, the index was designed to guide the institute’s investment decisions during the pandemic, but “we realized that it was substantial and could be a handy tool for public policymakers,” he says.

These policies have varied in intensity depending on the scenario of each location. In Pará, for instance, Governor Hélder Barbalho announced on Friday the extension of lockdown, the total closure of activities until May 24th in ten cities, including the capital Belém.

The state has already recorded 10,867 cases of coronavirus and 1,063 deaths from the disease. In Brazil, there are currently 218,000 cases and 14,817 deaths according to the latest balance.

Below are the top ten most vulnerable cities:

Mojuí dos Campos – (PA)
Wanderley – (BA)
Ibirataia – (BA)
Sítio do Quinto – (BA)
Jussiape – (BA)
Delmiro Gouveia – (AL)
Ubaitaba – (BA)
São Francisco – (MG)
São Raimundo Nonato – (PI)
Faro – (PA)

And the ten least vulnerable cities:

Colina (SP)
São Bernardo do Campo (SP)
Nova Lima (MG)
Flores da Cunha (RS)
Colombia (SP)
Cuiabá (MT)
Extrema (MG)
Porto Real (RJ)
Olímpia (SP)
Gavião Peixoto (SP)

Source: Exame