Trade confidence in Brazil rises to highest level since September – FGV

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Trade Confidence Index (Icom) of the Brazilian Economic Institute of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre) rose 2.0 points in June, from 93.9 to 95.9 points, reaching its highest level since September 2020 (99.6 points). On a quarterly moving average basis, the indicator rose 7.8 points, registering the second high after six months of consecutive declines.

In June, confidence increased in four of the six main trade segments and was influenced by the improved perception of the current moment. The current situation index (ISA-COM) rises 9.3 points to 104.2, its highest level since October 2020 (105.1 points), while the expectations index (IE-COM) declines 5.9 points to 87.6.

After a sharp decline in the first quarter of 2021, trade confidence rebounded on a quarterly average, influenced by improved satisfaction with the current moment. The tightening of restrictive measures at the end of the first quarter contributed to the decline in quarterly ISA-COM, but easing in subsequent months and progress on immunization are positively influencing perceptions of the pace of turnover. The lower IE-COM level suggests that there is still much uncertainty about the continuity of this recovery in the coming months.

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