Analysis: What Changes in Brazil With Biden’s Victory? Less Than Expected

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Defeated candidate Donald Trump, still firmly planted in the White House, continues making baseless fraud allegations, filing petitions for a recount (which is expected, since many votes were very tight) and ordering federal government bodies not to cooperate in any way with president-elect Joseph Biden.

In his crusade to make his White House the opposite of Trump’s, Biden has already set up a task force focused on lowering America’s deplorable records in confirmed cases and deaths by the novel coronavirus.

“I beg you, wear a mask,” he declared, allowing it to leak that he was even considering making it compulsory, an order out of his reach in the country of free will. He is also likely to reinstate and even expand the distribution of checks to families and business subsidies to revive the economy. “Let’s rebuild the middle class, which is the backbone of the nation,” he said in his victory speech.

Another more than expected step is the reintegration of the United States into the Paris Agreement, which sets international targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainability is one of Biden’s themes, as Brazilians know given the barbs exchanged in recent months between the elected president, who threatens to organize a global effort to finance the preservation of the Amazon, and Jair Bolsonaro, annoyed by what he considers as unacceptable interference in national affairs.

A first-hand partner in the Trump formula of making politics, and still confident in the judicialization of votes, Bolsonaro is delaying the recognition of Biden’s victory while he adds fuel – in this instance, figuratively – to the environmental fire. On Tuesday, november 10th, he readdressed the matter: “Diplomacy alone is not enough. When you run out of words, you must have gunpowder,” he said in a statement tailored to become a meme.

Trying to anticipate how Biden and Bolsonaro will relate as of January 20th, the day of the American’s inauguration, has been one of the most practiced exercises currently in Brasília.

The day after Biden’s victory, a Sunday, Bolsonaro met with his main advisors to assess the situation. The military, who never found it healthy to be unconditionally attached to Trump, proposed that the President publish a statement recognizing the Democrat’s victory on his social media.

The ideological wing opposed it. The tone escalated to the point that a Minister of the first group said (exaggeratedly) that Bolsonaro was at risk of impeachment for not recognizing the power of the vote, while another warned him that Chamber president Rodrigo Maia, signatory of a congratulations note, was already capitalizing on his support for the American.

Amid the battle of versions and analysis, Bolsonaro asked his international affairs team what was the chance, from zero to ten, of Trump to reverse his defeat and be reelected. The surprising (and mistaken) reply was: “Seven”. He decided to hold on to his hope in the turnaround.

Looking beyond the judicial battle now being fought by Trump, the Planalto hopes that the result will end up in the Supreme Court – where, in 2000, faced with the ambiguity of some scrutinies, Democrat Al Gore, winner in the ballot box, lost the presidency to George W. Bush. According to presidential advisors, of the nine justices, six would vote for Trump.

However, so far there is no hard evidence of fraud in the U.S. elections, nor is there any reason for the matter to be examined by the highest Court. A detail: In 2000, Bush had won at the polls that were under judgment. “It is difficult to prove irregularities by a margin of 53,000 votes in Pennsylvania and 14,000 in Georgia,” concedes one of Bolsonaro’s advisors, mentioning the two states with the most contested results.

It becomes more evident each passing day that Trump is not going to win any judicial battle and will have to return home. A Reuters/Ipsos survey three days after Biden’s election shows that 80 percent of Americans recognize the legitimacy of the result and only three percent are still betting on reelection.

Despite support for something unusual to occur, on Tuesday, November 10th, the ministers symbolizing the ideological wing, Ernesto Araújo, of Foreign Relations, and Ricardo Salles, of the Environment, together attended a previously scheduled meeting with Keith Krach, Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment, and the American Ambassador in Brasília, Todd Chapman. The two Trump men signaled that regardless of who holds the White House, diplomacy between the two countries will proceed pragmatically, based on the many common interests.

Despite not having thrown in the towel, members of the Brazilian government are beginning to outline a somewhat far-fetched plan B, which would include Araújo, the Foreign Minister who abhors issues dear to Biden, such as multiculturalism and global agreements. In 2013, when secret documents released by former CIA analyst Edward Snowden disclosed that the U.S. secret service was spying on President Dilma Rousseff, Araújo, who worked at the embassy in Washington, came in contact with Vice-President Biden, tasked by Barack Obama to pour oil on troubled waters.

The plan was for him to reestablish this contact. Another proposal (eccentric) would have come from Salles, seen abroad as the spokesperson for patch burning and deforestation: to suggest that Bolsonaro send him for a meeting on the Amazon with elected vice-president Kamala Harris.

“We have to reverse the situation. Rather than allowing the United States to put pressure on Brazil, we have to put pressure on them by dumping the responsibility on Biden,” a palace advisor risked.

In the opinion of members of the Bolsonaro government, Biden as president does not imply that the United States will isolate Brazil, first because of the volume of American investments here, and also because the country has China as its main economic partner – a situation that Washington would like to reverse, particularly when the dispute for the 5G frequency auction in the country draws nearer next year, an explosive point of the cold war between the two powers that should not cool down under the Democratic administration.

Behind the scenes, the two countries are still talking and the relationship is shake-proof. “Brazil is among the ten largest economies on the planet and exports to the United States a diverse range of products. This will not change,” says José Botafogo Gonçalves, ambassador and Minister of Industry, Trade and Tourism during the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

Even the return of the United States to the Paris Agreement is perceived in Brasília as a possibility of smoothing the edges, since Brazil remains a signatory and Bolsonaro has already signalled that it will remain so. “On the environmental issue, Biden may even be better than Trump for the country,” assesses a government Minister. After all, the decarbonization of the economy foreseen in the agreement will leverage the market of less polluting fuels, a factor from which Brazil could greatly benefit.

“Biden’s election signals the loss of oil power. We have abundance of wind, solar and biofuels. The country needs to prepare itself for the transition,” says David Zylbersztajn, former director of the National Petroleum Agency (ANP).

Known for his friendliness and affability, Biden has experience in international politics and, unlike most American presidents, knows the peculiarities of Brazil, where he visited twice during the Obama administration. The first time, in 2013, he tried to enable the sale of American fighter jets to the FAB (he failed) and drew attention in Brasília for recording in a notebook all the complaints he heard from government members.

A few months later, he sent replies to each of the questions raised. In 2014 he returned to dismantle the crisis triggered by Snowden’s documents, and this time he was successful. “I congratulated Obama for having such a seductive vice-president,” said Dilma at the time. “That man would even be able to sell ice in Canada.”

No matter how much he presents himself as Trump’s antithesis, Biden will not return the world to what it was before the rise of the millionaire who made confrontation and aggressiveness two pillars of political performance – no least because the 72 million Americans who voted for the Republican prove that his right-wing populism remains strong.

That said, there is no doubt that the melting of the motto “The United States first” – which, for Biden, “has only resulted in an isolated United States” – will change the course of international relations. From the standpoint of behavior issues, a less xenophobic and prejudiced leadership is expected. In economic issues, less protectionism – which can be good for Brazil.

“Brazilian diplomacy needs to restore its unique ability to build bridges, aligning the country with the needs of the 21st century,” says Sérgio Amaral, Brazil’s ambassador to Washington between 2016 and 2019 and today a counselor at the Brazilian Center for International Relations. At last, we are experiencing a historic moment: the largest economy on the planet is going to change course.

Source: Veja

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