Anti-Kirchnerism, Argentina’s dominant political identity

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In tune with what is happening elsewhere globally, negative political identities and cross-rejections predominate over support in Argentina. At the moment, anti-Kirchnerism is the predominant identity, followed by anti-Macrism and anti-Peronism.

This results from a study carried out in October by the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba & Asociados. The research included 2,500 cases from all over the country, and a structured online questionnaire was used.

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When asked about their party identity, 56.8% of the people surveyed recognized themselves as anti-Kirchnerist, 26.5% as Kirchnerist, and 16.7% did not answer.

On the other hand, 43.9% identified themselves as anti-Macrista, 20.2% as Macrista, and 35.9% chose the don’t know/no answer option.

Meanwhile, 40.0% said they were anti-Peronist, 36.4% Peronists, and 23.6% did not answer.

Finally, 23.9% self-perceived themselves as radical and 21.3% as anti-radical, but most people -54.8%- in this question clicked on don’t know/no.

By regions, the areas where Kirchnerism has more support are Patagonia (37.4%) and the Northeast (34.5%), followed by the Northwest (27.1%) and the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (26.5%). Central (23.9%) and especially Cuyo (7.6%) are the most hostile.

In the mirror, the areas where Macrismo has more adherents are Cuyo (36.4%) and Centro (23.3%). It is closely followed by Amba (21.0%) and, far away, NOA (14.0%), NEA (13.6%), and Patagonia (11.8%).

In an interview with La Capital, one of the directors of the consulting firm, Gustavo Córdoba, remarked that part of the phenomenon is not new. “If you look back five years, anti-Kirchnerism has always been the most intense political cleavage in Argentine politics”, he says.

And he adds: “When the division is Peronism versus anti-Peronism, Peronism wins, but when the cleavage is anti-Kirchnerism or Kirchnerism, Kirchnerism loses. The Peronist pole always incorporates moderate segments, to which the government has lost all-access”.

In the Paso elections of September 12, the ruling party only won in 6 of the 24 provinces and was ten percentage points behind Juntos por el Cambio. Even in the province of Buenos Aires, a stronghold of Kirchnerism, the Frente de Todos pierced the floor that Cristina Fernández had achieved in 2017.

YELLOW LIGHTS

The multiple crises faced by the government of Alberto Fernández and the own mistakes, warns Córdoba, made the negative image of the main referents of Frente de Todos jump with respect to the previous month.

In September, the President’s negative image was 58.0%, Cristina Kirchner’s 54.1%, and Axel Kicillof’s 44.3%.

Now, the consultant points out, both Fernández and the new Chief of Cabinet Juan Manzur exceed 60% of negative valuation.

In any case, Córdoba stresses, the opposition should also observe the yellow lights on the board. “While it is true that society gave Larreta the message to get ready because he can be alternation, his early participation in the national dispute did not come for free in terms of image”, he analyzes.

In this sense, more than a prize vote to Juntos por el Cambio, Córdoba observes the repetition of the punishment vote.

“Society is less and less tolerant to bad results. We have been ten years of economic stagnation, and poverty growth, the level of frustration is extremely high”, observes the specialist in public opinion.

A question in the consultant’s October report – to be released in full on Sunday – quantifies this uneasiness. In response to the statement “while the national parties continue fighting, Argentina’s problems remain the same,” 70.6% said they strongly agree, 14.9% somewhat agree, 3.9% somewhat disagree, 7.1% strongly disagree, and 3.6% did not answer.

“Therein lies the real fracture: society is going in a certain direction, and the only thing politics is thinking about is candidacies,” emphasizes Córdoba.

Other public opinion studies also reflect disturbing data. For example, the latest Latinobarómetro report marks that support for democracy in Argentina fell between 2017 and 2020 from 68% to 55%. Meanwhile, 14% of the people who participated in the survey in the country said that they do not care about a democratic regime, and 13% said that an authoritarian government might be preferable.