Five keys for a better understanding of the mega-elections that will define Chile’s future

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The “most important elections since the plebiscite marked the end of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship (1973-1990)”, or “the elections that will set the rules of the game for decades to come”. These are some of the phrases that are said about the elections that Chile will experience next weekend.

But why so much expectation? Five issues are explained below.

1.- WHAT IS BEING VOTED ON?

On May 15 and 16, Chile faces four simultaneous elections in which 16,730 candidates will participate: the municipal and regional elections, in which mayors, council members, and governors will be chosen; and the constituent elections, in which the 155 candidates who will draft the future new Constitution will be elected.

More than 1,300 candidates are running for the Constitutional Convention, which will be made up of members of civil society, including militants of traditional parties and independents.

Its members will have nine months to present a new text, which may be extended for three months. Thereafter, in mid-2022, Chile will experience a new plebiscite to approve or reject the new Constitution.

There are no polls that anticipate the result of the Constituent Assembly, due to its unprecedented nature, the large number of candidates, and the difficulties in taking poll samples.

Regarding the municipal elections, Chileans must elect the mayors and council members of 346 communes (municipalities), in addition to the governors of the 16 regions into which the country is divided, who will remain in office for four years.

2.- GENDER PARITY AND INDIGENOUS PEOPLE

One of the greatest achievements of the Chilean feminist movement was to make the Constitutional Convention a gender parity body. This is something unprecedented in the world and makes Chile the first country to have a Magna Carta written by an equal number of men and women.

Parity was a demand born in the streets during the social protests that began in 2019 and in which women played a leading role. It was soon introduced in the agendas of many female parliamentarians who made it a reality through constitutional reform.

In addition to women, indigenous people are also guaranteed their participation – 17 of the 155 seats in the body were reserved for them.

Chile, where a dozen native peoples represent 12.8% of the national population, is one of the few countries in Latin America that does not recognize indigenous peoples in its Constitution.

3.- THE ORIGIN OF THE CONSTITUENT PROCESS

In October 2019, a wave of massive protests broke out in Chile, which began as a complaint against the increase in the subway ticket price and turned into a popular clamor for a more egalitarian socio-economic model left some 30 dead and thousands injured.

In response to the riots, the possibility of drafting a new Constitution to replace the current one, inherited from Pinochet, which is considered the origin of the country’s great inequalities due to the privatization of basic services such as water, health, and pensions.

The possibility of writing a new fundamental law materialized last October, with the celebration of a historic plebiscite approved by an overwhelming majority (80%) to replace the current Magna Carta.

4.- THE FIRST GOVERNORS

For the first time since Chile returned to democracy, citizens will select the 16 administrative regions into which the country is divided. Until now, the position of regional intendant existed, but the president himself appointed it, and its autonomy was rather limited.

The great battle is centered on the Metropolitan Region, which houses Santiago and is home to more than 8 million inhabitants. However, the Valparaíso region, where the country’s major ports and part of the agricultural industry, will also be very close.

However, this unprecedented election will also be accompanied by introducing the figure of government delegates, one for each region, which the Executive will appoint. To date, two bills are still being processed in Parliament to address the powers and limits of each position.

Therefore, the new regional governorships will take office amid uncertainty regarding their competencies and budgetary autonomy.

5.- THE CHALLENGE OF ABSTENTION

The great unknown is the turnout, which has not exceeded 50% since voting ceased to be compulsory in 2012, except the plebiscite last October (50.9%).

Experts indicate that the complexity of the elections and the wide electoral offer may play against and discourage voting, although voters will not take more than 4 minutes to vote, despite the number of ballots – in the October referendum, it took an average of only one minute to vote.

The pandemic, which has already left 1.3 million people infected and approximately 27,000 dead, and still keeps about 90% of the country in quarantine on weekends, will be the most decisive factor.

Although in October many older voters -the most participative- stayed at home for fear of contagion, it is expected that this weekend they will go out to vote massively because they are already immunized.

With 19 million inhabitants, Chile is one of the countries in the world with the highest percentage of its population vaccinated: close to 50% have already received at least one dose.

The elections, which were to be held in April and were postponed due to the pandemic, will be held on two days, Saturday and Sunday – something unprecedented in Latin America – precisely to avoid crowds and encourage people to turn out to vote.