Argentina economic activity beats forecasts in December, down 10% in 2020

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Argentina’s economic activity fell 2.2% in the last month of 2020 versus a year earlier, better than the average 2.6% fall analysts had forecast, while activity was down 10% for the full year, also better than initial government projections.

Argentina’s economy, in recession since 2018, was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and a lengthy lockdown in the country to rein in new cases, though there have been signs of a revival in recent months as restrictions have been eased.

Economy activity was up 0.9% in December versus the month before, the INDEC statistics agency said, the eighth consecutive period of month-on-month growth.

“Thus it was above the level of (last) March and just 3% below pre-COVID levels from (last) February,” the Economy Ministry said in a statement after the results.

“After having gone through the most intense moment of the pandemic… economic activity managed to recover in the second part of the year,” the ministry added, saying the full-year result was better than the 12.1% fall initially budgeted for.

Matías Rajnerman, an economist at the Ecolatina consultancy, said ahead of the result that activity had been helped by “an industrial recovery”, sometimes even above pre-pandemic levels.

“In 2021 it is expected that there will be a rebound close to 4.5% and that from February we will begin to feel even more the reactivation (of the economy),” added Natalia Motyl, economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.