Peru elections: Keiko Fujimori reduces gap with Pedro Castillo by two points in poll

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The IPSOS poll registered 34% support for the Fuerza Popular candidate, 9 points behind the Peru Libre contender, who managed to reach 43% of voting intentions 5 weeks before the runoff.

Pedro Castillo is 9 points ahead of his rival Keiko Fujimori in the second round of Peru’s presidential elections, according to a new poll released on Sunday, 5 weeks before the vote.

IPSOS pollster’s survey released on Sunday’s Cuarto Poder program reported a 43% voting intention for Castillo against Fujimori’s 34%.

The distance between the two candidates for the Peruvian Presidency has been reduced by 2 percentage points with respect to the preceding IPSOS poll, conducted two weeks ago, between April 15th and 16th, as Fujimori rose by 3 points and Castillo by 1 point. Although the narrowing of the difference is within the error margin, the pro-Fujimori campaign considers it a trend signal.

“We take it with modesty, with serenity. We see that finally the numbers and the trends are starting to move,” said Keiko Fujimori to the Sunday program Cuarto Poder.

She also highlighted that the poll was conducted before Saturday’s debate. “There is still a long way to go. It is important to call on the people who are joining us to continue helping us,” she said.

The two candidates’ growth comes from undecided voters, who have dropped to 10% and have preferred Fujimori to Castillo to a greater extent, particularly women, according to IPSOS’ president Alfredo Torres.

Fujimori has also been trying to reduce her “anti-vote”, comprised of citizens who say that under no circumstances would they vote for her. In recent weeks, it dropped to 50% (from 55% in the previous poll), although she needs to continue reducing it to remain competitive. In Castillo’s case, 36% of respondents said they were completely opposed to Peru Libre’s candidate.

The poll also showed that 36% of Peruvians want radical changes in the neoliberal economic model established in Peru since the mandate of Alberto Fujimori, as promoted by Castillo, who advocates the nationalization of natural resource exploitation. Fifty-four percent prefer moderate changes and only 11% advocated continuity, which so far has been advocated by Keiko Fujimori, who is seeking the presidency to vindicate her father’s legacy, whom she has vowed to pardon from the 25-year prison sentence he is serving for crimes against humanity.

Fujimori secured a wide difference in Lima, with 51% of support against 29% who prefer Castillo, but the situation is reversed in the interior of the country: 51% would vote for the leftist leader against 25% who choose Fuerza Popular.

Polarization is even higher among socioeconomic sectors. In class A, the highest income bracket, support for Fujimori stands at 81%, compared to 11% for Castillo. In class E, the lowest (and much more populous) sector, support for Castillo stands at 60%, against 22% for Fujimori.

The survey was conducted on April 30th with 1,204 adults nationwide in Peru, with a 2.8% error margin.

The country, in recession due to the pandemic and politically unstable since 2016 -it had three presidents in 5 days in November-, is now heading for a runoff election between 2 candidates located on opposite poles and who together barely secured 32% of the votes in the first round.

More than 25 million Peruvians are called to the polls on June 6th to elect their next president for the 2021-2026 term, who will take office on July 28th, the 200th anniversary of Peru’s independence.

Source: Infobae