Venezuela: International Support for Guaidó Appears to Crumble

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Despite his visit to Europe and the United States, it seems that a number of European countries and the European Union (EU), Washington’s most important ally, as well as the member countries of the so-called Lima Group, are withdrawing their support for Juan Guaidó.

According to a report in the Spanish newspaper ALnavío, both Spain and Norway and the EU are withdrawing their support from the clear demand for presidential elections in Venezuela.

The focus is now primarily on holding parliamentary elections and on the unequivocal return of Guaidó as President of Parliament. For some weeks now, this position has also been claimed by Luis Parra, who won a controversial election to this position. Furthermore, Parliament should approve a new make-up of the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the Supreme Court should undergo “a degree of restructuring”.

However, according to ALnavío, a participant in a secret meeting held last weekend of Spanish, Norwegian and EU officials stated that “presidential elections are virtually out of the question”.

Juan Pablo de Laiglesia, Spanish Foreign Minister for Latin America in the first government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is said to have privately admitted to Guaidó’s representatives in Madrid that participation in parliamentary elections was the only realistic option currently available to Guaidó’s camp.

Meanwhile, the Spanish governing parties, the PSOE and Podemos, refused to comply with a request from the opposition parties to reiterate their formal recognition of Guaidó.

Last week in Canada, a meeting was held with the foreign ministers of the Lima group, which had previously adopted a clearly supportive stance towards Guaidó. According to reports from the Infobae news website, they had still spoken out in favor of “fair, free and credible presidential elections”.

However, a statement to that effect is said to have been signed only by Canadian Foreign Minister François-Philippe Champagne. Essentially, the Lima Group is converging with the position of Mexico and Argentina, according to which there must be a dialogue-based solution. The main point here is that the Venezuelan people themselves must decide on their future and there must be no “solution imposed from abroad”.

Champagne also called for the appointment of an “independent Supreme Court and an impartial National Electoral Council”.

Meanwhile, US news agency Bloomberg reported last week that the US government is considering how to adapt its hitherto unsuccessful strategy for regime change in Venezuela. The clear goal is still to remove Nicolás Maduro from power.

After more than a year of threats of military intervention and, in particular, the continuing tightening of unilateral economic sanctions, other options must now gradually be considered.

Within the government of President Donald Trump, for instance, there should be a discussion about another attempt to get some members of the PSUV, the ruling party in Venezuela, to take their side and persuade them to share power with opposition members for a certain period of time in a sort of transitional government.

A few weeks ago Trump had invited Guaidó to speak to Congress on the state of the nation and pledged him further support. But the question has been raised for some time now how much of this support is in fact left after Guaidó has failed, after more than a year, to seize real power.

Last week, the United States made yet another attempt to increase the pressure on the Maduro government by imposing severe sanctions. A subsidiary of the Russian oil company Rosneft, which is also a major purchaser of Venezuelan oil, was given three months to terminate its business relations with Venezuela.

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