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RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - Vaccine. One word, only two syllables. All economic hopes distilled and summarized in one jab. If immunization of a large part of the population against Covid-19 is achieved, clear spaces will crop up after a dark year. The 2020 global recession could be overcome. But we are living in times when weeks feel like months and there are sudden changes of itinerary at dizzying speeds.

That is why reports from international organizations, banks and fund managers with economic projections for 2021 are fraught with conditioning factors. And they run the risk of becoming outdated as . . .

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