Analysis: Brazil Has Negotiated Vaccine Doses to Achieve Herd Immunity by October

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Considering the local production capacity of vaccines and the contracts already signed with pharmaceutical companies worldwide, Brazil should achieve herd immunity against Covid-19 in October this year, two months after the United States and almost at the same time as Japan and the European Union. In the South American continent, herd immunity should be reached only in March 2022.

A controversial term in the first months of the pandemic, herd immunity occurs when a large part of a population has already been vaccinated and developed antibodies against a virus, thereby reducing its potential for transmission and circulation. In this survey, this portion of the population would total 75% – approximately 158 million of the 211 million Brazilians. The data were compiled by Airfinity, a British data analysis company.

If the reality accurately reflects mathematical projections, countries leading the world vaccine race will reach the same level of immunization in the first half: Israel, which has already immunized 50% of its population, should achieve 75% by the end of April; Canada in June, the UK in July and the US in August. The estimates do not consider potential vaccine shortcomings in relation to new mutations of the virus, which are causing concern among scientists and pharmaceutical companies.

So far, the Butantan Institute and Fiocruz are the main vaccine suppliers in Brazil. The first, linked to the São Paulo government and partner of Chinese Sinovac, has the capacity to manufacture 600,000 daily doses, but still depends on Chinese raw materials for production – at least until January 2022, when the Coronavac will be entirely produced in Brazil.

The situation is similar at Fiocruz, which tested and began to produce the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine as early as this week – but also based on the API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) imported from China. The first batch, which will land in Brazil this weekend, should yield 7.5 million doses, and the Ministry of Health’s contract with the laboratory provides for 13 other API shipments, delivered every two weeks.

The initial delay in the delivery of raw materials, which triggered a diplomatic crisis between Brazil and China, should not delay Fiocruz’s schedule, which guarantees the production of 100 million doses of the vaccine by the end of July.

More vaccines on the way

With the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency’s recent decision, granting approval for emergency use of vaccines in Brazil without laboratories having to conduct Phase 3 trials locally, manufacturers other than Sinovac/Butantan and AstraZeneca/Fiocruz should also supply vaccines to the country.

On Friday, President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to meet with Minister of Health General Pazuello to decide on the purchase of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, which will be locally produced by União Química as soon as the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA) gives the green light.

About 33 million doses of the Covaxin vaccine, developed by Indian Bharat Biotech, may also reach Brazil through the private sector. The Federal Government assisted the negotiations but then the laboratory and the investment fund controlling it rejected the negotiations.

The issue is still controversial because, according to the World Health Organization itself, by decentralizing the distribution of available doses, vaccines will not necessarily reach those who need them the most, thereby delaying the unburdening of healthcare systems and economic rebound.

Source: Gabriel Justo, Exame.com