RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil is among the six South American countries that began the week with coronavirus transmission under control, according to Imperial College London calculations, known for monitoring epidemics.
The Brazilian transmission rate (Rt) estimated by the British Epidemic Monitoring Center is the lowest since the end of April.
The index is now 0.94, which means that every 100 infected individuals pass the coronavirus to another 94, which in turn spread the disease to another 88, progressively reducing the reach of the disease.
Peru and Bolivia (both with 0.88), Colombia (0.92), Ecuador (0.94), and Chile (0.97) are also in the group of South American countries that see their transmission slowing down. Of these, Chile has the longest record of favorable rates: it is the tenth straight week in which the Chilean Rt does not rise above one.
Venezuela (1.06), Argentina (1.09), and Paraguay (1.32) record an acceleration in contagion, according to Imperial College calculations, based on the number of deaths reported.
Despite the good news, the PAHO (the Pan-American arm of the World Health Organization) stated on Wednesday, September 2nd, that countries cannot relax their vigilance.
“No one should celebrate prematurely. Even those experiencing a reduction in numbers are not out of the woods. There are still areas where the population is exposed,” said the organization’s director of transmissible diseases, Marcos Espinal.
Globally, the number in countries monitored by Imperial College London for having active transmission (that is, at least ten deaths in each of the last two weeks) continues to grow. There were 51 in the first week of May and now there are 72.
Imperial College calculates the transmission rate based on the number of reported deaths because the data are less subject to underreporting than recorded cases; as there is a lag between the time of contagion and death, changes in policies to fight the epidemic take an average of two weeks to be reflected in the calculations.
Based on the number of deaths, Imperial College also estimates the accuracy of the number of reported cases by countries. This indicator in the Brazilian case stands at 64 percent this week, i.e., the country records slightly less than two-thirds of its Covid-19 cases.
In population terms, Brazil continued to reduce the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In the 14 days ended on Wednesday, there were 257 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 268 in the preceding week and 291 recorded a month ago.
Over the past fortnight, Argentina, Colombia, and Peru recorded a higher proportion of new cases per inhabitant than Brazil.
With the exception of Uruguay and Guyana, which recorded only isolated outbreaks, all South American countries have community transmission, according to a weekly report released by the W.H.O. on Monday, August 31st.
Source: Folhapress
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