ICL Survey: Covid-19 Transmission Rate in Brazil Below One for Fifth Consecutive Week

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2) in Brazil remained below one for the fifth consecutive week, points out the Imperial College of London, in the United Kingdom, with a latest update completed on Monday, October 26th.

The report shows that the rate stands at 0.98 – each group of 100 patients with the virus infects another 98 people, which points to a slow deceleration in contagion.

The figure, also known as Rt, confirms a stabilizing trend of the pandemic in Brazil. However, since it is an average for the whole country, it may mask regional circumstances.

On Monday, for instance, eight states reported an increase in deaths: Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Ceará, and Pernambuco. The last time in which so many states showed a rising trend was on September 24th. Another nine states present downward curves and ten present stability.

According to the error margin of the British monitoring system, the transmission rate in the country may be higher (Rt of up to 1.02) or lower (Rt of up to 0.72). In these scenarios, every 100 people with the virus would infect another 102 or 72, respectively.

Scientists point out that “the notification of deaths and cases in Brazil is changing; the results must be interpreted with caution,” without providing details.

Decrease in tests

A survey conducted by G1 with Ministry of Health data pointed to a drop in testing in the country between August and September; experts pointed out that this may point to a deterioration in the ability to detect cases of the disease (which influences the R estimate).

In August, the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in Brazil dropped for the first time to values below one. Brazil accounts for over 150,000 deaths since the onset of the pandemic – the second-highest figure in the world – and the cumulative total of Covid-19 cases is now over 5.4 million.

Source: G1