ICL: Covid-19 Transmission Rate in Brazil Back Above 1.0 (November 17th)

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The novel coronavirus transmission rate (Rt) has once again increased in Brazil, points out monitoring from Imperial College in London (ICL), United Kingdom. The estimate update was released on Tuesday, November 17th, and considers data collected up to Monday, November 16th.

The report shows that the rate stands at 1.10. This means that each group of one hundred infected people pass the virus on to another 110. The data consider the average of death estimates in the two-week comparison. According to statistics, this rate may be higher (up to Rt = 1.24) or lower (up to Rt = 1.05).

Scientists point out that “the notification of deaths and cases in Brazil is changing; the results must be interpreted with caution”. Last week, Brazil had reached the lowest Rt figure since April: 0.68.

Symbolized by Rt, the “contagion rate” is a number that translates the potential of a virus spreading: when it is higher than one, each infected person spreads the disease to more than one person and the disease progresses.

Estimates for São Paulo

In addition to the Imperial College London’s estimate, Brazilian researchers are also monitoring the Rt. In another follow-up, researchers from the University of São Paulo and Paulista State University realized that in early November there was a change in the trend of transmission. The contagion curve rose again, a reflection of the increase in hospitalizations in mid-October.

In the state of São Paulo, the transmission rate is above one (1.05), which points to an acceleration trend in infections. Projections show that it should reach 1.11 by next Monday. In the city of São Paulo, the rate is even higher. The trend is that it will increase from the current 1.36 to 1.41.

Numbers in Brazil

Brazil had 166,101 confirmed coronavirus deaths by 1 PM on Tuesday, November 17th, according to a survey by a media outlet consortium based on data from the state Health Secretariats. The figure is the second-highest in the world, behind only the United States.

The rolling average of new infections over the past seven days had a variation of +59 percent compared to cases recorded in two weeks. This percentage is the highest since June 3rd.

Source: G1