Indian strain will inevitably spread fast in Brazil, says epidemiologist

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – “The first complexity is that we are a continental-sized country, so it is almost inevitable that it will quickly spread. I am not enthusiastic about the measures currently under consideration,” Eliseu Alves Waldman says.

Even if Brazil had the infrastructure to erect sanitary barriers in the main transportation terminals and borders, it would be difficult to prevent the entry and spread of the Indian strain of the coronavirus, says epidemiologist Eliseu Alves Waldman. According to the expert, this resource is inefficient in continental territories, working only in very rich and small countries.

“The first complexity is that we are a continental-sized country, so it is almost inevitable that it will quickly spread. I am not enthusiastic about the measures currently under consideration,” says the professor of the Department of Epidemiology at the University of São Paulo School of Public Health.

Waldman stresses that the only way to contain accelerated variant transmission, particularly strains that multiply faster, is by adopting preventive measures such as isolation and the use of masks. But since the start of the pandemic, this commitment has been one of the greatest challenges faced by health teams, which means that the daily crowds registered in cities will accelerate the spread of the Indian strain, he points out.

According to the doctor, Brazil does not have enough tests to check all the people arriving at airports, ports, and land borders. “And there is no efficacy in testing only people with a fever, because we know that around 60% are asymptomatic,” he notes.

He also points out that the strain was expected to reach Brazil in a matter of days. “When we see that neighboring countries have already detected a variant in their territory, it is a sign that transmission is accelerating and has even entered our country before we realize it.”

Waldman considers that the least serious aspect of the novelty is that there are no studies yet proving that the Indian strain is more lethal.

However, for Brazil, this represents yet another problem to be addressed, he adds, since there were existing variants in circulation that impacted the surge in Covid-19 cases, and we are still far from achieving collective immunity through vaccination. “We are still very vulnerable,” notes Waldman.

Strengthening surveillance in transportation terminals and borders is important to contain the spread of the Indian strain or any other variant of the novel coronavirus in Brazil, according to Ana Freitas Ribeiro, coordinator of the Epidemiology Service of the Emílio Ribas Hospital’s Institute of Infectology.

But health protocols are strictly the same as recommended by sanitarists, says the epidemiologist, who advocates social distancing measures to prevent new variants of the virus, including domestic cases.

She points out that the problems caused by the variants “did not emerge overnight.” According to Ana, it is necessary to expect this amid a pandemic, because the virus continuously modifies itself in search of survival.

“So abiding by health protocols, maintaining social distancing, and wearing masks are also attitudes we need to take to prevent the emergence of new variants, not only contain the Indian strain,” she says.

“Otherwise, we will continue to see a rise in cases, with vulnerable people developing the most severe forms of the disease, and also the impact of this on bed occupancy, on the health system, which will continue to be at risk of collapse. People die more not because of the variants, but because of the lack of oxygen, of a shortage of ICU beds, of structure,” says the epidemiologist, pointing out that it is also essential to increase vaccination.

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