Mexico admits that the number of deaths due to Covid-19 is at least 60% higher than previously reported

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL –  The Ministry of Health has disclosed a contradictory mismatch of figures linked to Covid-19 that raises the death toll to 321,000, surpassing that of Brazil.

The Mexican government admitted Saturday on its website that the actual death toll from the coronavirus pandemic is more than 322,000 people, 60% higher than the official figure (so far) of 201,429 dead, based on the number of deaths confirmed with diagnosed tests.

Updated figures on excess mortality released by Mexico’s Health Ministry show that there is a gap of 294,287 deaths “associated with coronavirus,” 61.4% more than the officially reported deaths to date, notes Reuters.

Mexican authorities have long contemplated the possibility that the actual number of coronavirus deaths may be higher than reported. Still, this new update places Mexico as the country with the second-highest mortality number in the world after the United States and above Brazil.

The ‘Excess Mortality in Mexico’ report released on Saturday March 27 states that as of February 13, the country had recorded 294,287 deaths associated with Covid-19 since the disease arrived in the country in February 2020.

The figure exceeds by 120,576 deaths the 173,711 deaths that were officially reported on  February 13 by the Ministry of Health in its technical report. Since then, 27,538 new deaths have been recorded, which would add up to at least 322,365 people dead due to the coronavirus.

Excess mortality is determined by comparing deaths in a given year with those that would have been expected based on data from previous years. An analysis of death certificates found that about 70.5% of excess mortality was related to covid-19, often because it was listed on death certificates as a factor or possible cause of death. But some experts say Covid-19 may have contributed to many other deaths because many people were unable to get treatment for other diseases because hospitals were overwhelmed.

Another reason behind the mismatch in numbers is that Mexico does little diagnostic testing; moreover, because hospitals were overwhelmed, many Mexicans died at home without being tested. The only way to get a clear picture is to review excess mortality and death certificates.

According to Johns Hopkins University, the new figure would be on par with Brazil, which, with 310,000 deaths, is officially the country with the second-highest number of deaths behind the United States. However, Mexico’s population, 126 million people, is much smaller than that of the United States, with more than 320 million inhabitants, or even Brazil, which has close to 210 million people.

The new report also confirms the severity of the second wave of infections that hit Mexico after Christmas. At the end of December, estimates of excess mortality were about 220,000 Covid-19-related deaths in Mexico. The figure grew by some 75,000 people in just six weeks. In population terms, as of the February 13 cutoff date, Mexico had the highest excess mortality on the planet, unsurpassed by any other nation.

According to engineer Alejandro Cano, who keeps a detailed account of the impact and evolution of the virus in Mexico, “combining official information available so far, it is possible to identify 449,827 deaths, 312,241 of which are directly associated with Covid, 46,193 could be false negatives, and 91,393 have not been explained,” he wrote on Twitter.

According to Efe news agency, the methodology of the new report by Mexico’s Health Ministry is similar to that used by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), which found that Mexico had 108,658 Covid-19 deaths in the first eight months of 2020, a figure 55.56% higher than the nearly 70,000 deaths counted by health authorities up to August.

Source: EFE/Reuters/DW

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