Return to “normality” triggers formation of 3rd wave of Covid-19 in Brazil – Fiocruz

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The premature resumption of activities in virtually all of Brazil is the main cause for the new wave of Covid-19 in formation. This assessment is contained in the new InfoGripe Bulletin released on Friday, May 28, by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz).

With the normalization of mobility in spite of the still very high number of cases and deaths, SARS-CoV-2 has begun to circulate again with intensity. Thus, the upsurge of the pandemic has become virtually inevitable.

There is an over 75% probability that this worsening will occur in 11 states (including São Paulo) and 95% in 3 others, according to the survey.

The latest InfoGripe Bulletin warns of the growth trend of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) cases. Currently, 96% of SARS cases are caused by the novel coronavirus. The increase affects most states and the Federal District.

The analysis covers epidemiological week 20 (from May 16 to 22).

“The study signals that the current scenario is associated with the premature resumption of activities,” said Fiocruz researcher Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of InfoGripe. “This scenario will keep the number of hospitalizations and deaths at high levels, with a worsening trend in the coming weeks.”

The bulletin also shows that, even in states where there was stabilization, it occurred at very high levels, similar to the peaks of the pandemic in 2020.

According to Gomes, the states of Amazonas, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Sul show a high probability (higher than 95%) of contagion growth in the long-term. Alagoas, the Federal District, Goiás, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Paraná, Santa Catarina, São Paulo and Tocantins show a moderate probability (higher than 75%) under the same perspective.

According to the survey, an interruption in the downward trend was observed in remaining states : Acre, Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, and Rondônia. Ceará remained stable.

The new bulletin warns that since epidemiological week 14, several states have been showing similar or higher values than those observed throughout 2020.

Gomes also highlights that these estimates reinforce the importance of caution in relaxing social distancing measures. For him, precautions must be maintained. This should be the procedure until the downward trend stabilizes and the number of new cases is very low.

“The interruption of the drop at high levels and the resumption of growth in the number of cases can be partly attributed to the resumption of circulation of the population and, consequently, to a greater exposure to the virus,” he added.

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