RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Slow vaccination and low isolation rates may result in a third wave of Covid-19 in Brazil, according to projections made by Brazilian and U.S. researchers. This surge may represent a new increase in the number of deaths, they speculate.
Scientists from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington say that unless vaccination progresses, the country could reach 751,000 deaths by August 27 – today there are officially 436,537. In addition, this scenario assumes that 95% of the population should wear masks.
The worst-case scenario projects the spread of the P.1 variant and neglect of the use of masks by immunized people, which would lead to a return to the 3,330 daily deaths on July 21, reaching 941,000 deaths on September 21.
According to the text, North American experts project an increase in deaths despite the reduction in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, due to the growth in infections and reduction in the use of masks and social distancing.
Cláudio Struchiner, physician and professor of applied mathematics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), observed that the Brazilian institutions refrain from making projections due to the uncertainties regarding the course of the pandemic in the country. He points to doubts regarding the vaccination rate, issues in the Brazil – China relationship (China is responsible for supplying most vaccine raw materials), the emergence of new strains, and the length of immunity, for instance. Nevertheless, the professor believes that the North American projection is plausible.
On the other hand, data from the Covid-19 Analysis Network show that the country is experiencing successive downward and stabilization peaks. After that, there is a new increase. Recent data suggest that Brazil is close to experiencing a new surge of cases. Another source of research, the University of São Paulo and Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) platform also projects an increase in cases.
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