Scientists forecast 3rd wave of Covid-19 in Manaus unless full lockdown decreed

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The State of Amazonas could spread the health crisis across the whole national territory.

The same team of scientists that last August predicted the second collapse in Manaus’ healthcare system because of Covid-19 in an article published in Nature magazine, now points to a third wave of the disease in the region. According to the researchers, the State of Amazonas could spread the health crisis to the whole of Brazil unless authorities impose a lockdown with at least 90% of the population isolated and a faster mass vaccination than in the rest of the country.

“Without adequate social isolation, Manaus should face a third wave in 2021. Strong police surveillance is needed to ensure the closure of Manaus. Furthermore, it is unthinkable to return to the classroom anywhere in Brazil at this point, precisely to prevent the spread of the strain that emerged in Amazonas. We also recommend the closure of plants and the Industrial District in Manaus, which may stop while continuing to pay their employees’ salaries,” said Lucas Ferrante, a biologist and doctor in the National Institute for Amazonia Research (INPA) biology program and the lead author of the article in the scientific journal.

“There is no lockdown in Manaus today, only a partial isolation that is under pressure to reopen the city. A reopening, even if gradual, would enable the pandemic to continue, and a high rate of cases and deaths throughout the year and into 2022,” Ferrante stressed.

The team, which should publish a new article in the coming weeks with projections for 2021, is comprised of professionals from diverse areas such as Medicine, Biology and Mathematics.

According to the scientists, the Covid-19 transmission and mortality rate should remain constant throughout the year unless strict isolation measures are implemented, thereby promoting the emergence of strains. “This should lead to new mutations, which may result in a new strain resistant to the vaccines already produced.”

The scientist stresses that the current second wave is not the result of the new strain, markedly more transmissible and responsible for more deaths in Manaus and inland, and similar to those found in South Africa and the United Kingdom. “This second wave is the result of the governor and the mayor’s negligence, for not having decreed a severe lockdown for a few weeks last year,” he says.

Resistance to isolation

Ferrante met with the current mayor, David Almeida, on January 21st. According to him, although he was receptive, the mayor has not yet taken any of the steps requested by the group.

“We suggest the lockdown and that the city hall establish a direct dialogue with the Ministry of Health and the state government to purchase more vaccines, as the government of São Paulo did, to prevent the disease from spreading and the virus from undergoing new mutations and becoming more resistant,” argued the scientist. The mayor’s advisor confirmed the meeting, but did not comment on its content.

Last year, the researchers also tried to meet with then mayor Artur Neto, suggesting a lockdown before Christmas, but the meeting was cancelled at short notice by an advisor. The former mayor’s advisor confirmed that his agenda had not allowed the meeting.

Ferrante also coordinated a study in May last year, at the request of the State Prosecutor’s Office, presented at a public hearing in the State Legislative Assembly. The data presented were viewed with suspicion by government deputies and the then director of the Amazonas Health Surveillance Foundation (FVS), Rosemary Costa. According to her, FVS data did not point to an increase in cases in the coming months.

“We have active surveillance, we have real-time data based on official systems. We will not allow FVS to be treated as a lesser entity and our data to be challenged,” said the director at the public hearing. She died on January 22nd of Covid-19, at the age of 61, during the second wave Manaus is experiencing.

Source: Noticias ao Minuto

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