RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Spain was the exception during the month of August. Covid-19 infections were growing gradually but steadily, while the rest of Europe watched its southern neighbor with concern. In fact, the incidence began to rise in late July, when cases were two to three times higher than in France or Germany. But they were still not many; the situation seemed manageable.
By late August, Spain was alone. With the curve rising, the country was clearly experiencing a second wave, different from the first, but also disturbing. It was a matter of time before the rest of Europe succumbed to this second strike by the coronavirus. France, the United Kingdom, Germany and the Czech Republic are registering record numbers. Italy is preparing new restrictive measures as it exceeds 5,000 daily infections for the first time.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) alerted on Friday that in virtually all the countries it monitors (in the European Economic Area and the United Kingdom) the registered cases have increased compared to the preceding week. In other words, there is an upward trend. The European body is also worried about another of the indicators it monitors, that of registered cases in people over 65 years of age.
In this age group the trend of infections is also increasing in 19 of the 34 countries analyzed, including Spain. With the latest available data, the Czech Republic is the country with the highest cumulative incidence in 14 days: 451 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. It is followed by the Netherlands with 323; Belgium with 309; and Spain with 308. The incidence of the disease has been growing for 77 consecutive days in Europe, alerts the ECDC.
“In Spain, the incidence increased long before we all believed it would,” says Jeffrey V. Lazarus, epidemiologist and researcher at the Barcelona Global Health Institute (ISGlobal). “We knew the virus would become strong again as soon as the cold hit and the population would be locked back in their homes and children in schools,” he says, but in Spain it happened still in the summer. “The summer vacation was not used to prepare for this,” he laments.
He refers to making coronavirus tests more accessible, strengthening basic care and contact tracking, but believes there’s one feature that made the second wave in Spain come early: “In part, I think it could be because of the very draconian confinement. When people were finally allowed to go out, families and friends gathered to eat, the San Juan party was celebrated in June in several locations … They were very happy because the authorities said that there was no alarm or phases and everything was as before. But the coronavirus was still there. This did not occur in other countries, this need to finally see the family after months unable to travel from one province to another.”
The slow growth of cases in Germany saw an abrupt acceleration last week, causing concern among the country’s political and health authorities. On Friday, for the third consecutive day, the country exceeded 4,000 infections, with a total of 4,721, according to the Robert Koch Institute. The increase occurs in good measure in large cities, such as Berlin, officially converted into a risk area since Thursday for having exceeded 50 infections in seven days for every 100 thousand inhabitants (58.2). Translated into the indicator typically used in Spain, its records a cumulative incidence in 14 days close to 100 cases. The Community of Madrid has five times this incidence, with 541 cases, but has areas that far exceed 1,000.
Germany decided to act before the situation got out of control. Chancellor Angela Merkel met on Friday with mayors of the country’s 11 major cities to settle the imposition of new restrictions when a city exceeds the limit of 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week. Restricting the sale of alcohol, extending the wearing of the mask in places where the safety distance cannot be maintained or reducing the number of participants in gatherings are part of the restrictions list, which aims to curb contagions and prevent the economy from paralyzing. Merkel also insisted, after the virtual meeting with Mayors, that schools should remain open whenever possible.
The German capital has already set to work: on Saturday it decreed a night curfew, which implies closing bars and restaurants from 11 PM to 6 AM in an attempt to contain nighttime activities, one of the causes behind the spread of the virus. The evening gatherings are also restricted to a maximum of five people. In the private sphere, the maximum number is reduced to ten people. In several states the overnight stay of people coming from risk areas in other states is subject to a negative Covid-19 test.
Italy has been trying to react in recent hours to the increase in the size of its second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Until last week, the country had withstood it better than any of its neighbors, despite being the most affected in March and April. But the most recent data, which exceeds 5,000 cases for the first time (last Saturday it reached 5,400) since the March and April crisis, has triggered all alarms and the government is considering tightening the restrictions included in the decree it will pass this week. Unlike what occurred in the European spring, when the pandemic spread through the north of the country, now the central and southern regions are the most affected, like Lazio, Campania and Calabria.
As a result, last week the government extended the state of alarm until January 31st and decreed that the regions will not be able to establish more flexible restrictions than those imposed by the central government. The wearing of masks is now mandatory on the street and in all public spaces.
In the United Kingdom, the National Bureau of Statistics sounded the alarm on Friday: the coronavirus already causes an average of over 17,000 infections per day in England alone. In the whole country, it is close to 22,000 cases per day. The highest incidence levels are occurring in the Northeast and Northwest of England. Cities like Liverpool, Manchester and Middlesborough have already alerted that their hospitals’ capacity could be exceeded in a matter of days. “I don’t want to panic, but in ten days our hospitals will be at a similar level to what they experienced during the peak of the pandemic,” said Matt Ashston, Liverpool’s public health director.
Boris Johnson’s government is preparing to announce more severe local restrictions on Monday in these areas, where over ten million citizens will again be subjected to the rigors of confinement. They will not be as severe as in late March, as Downing Street is desperately struggling to avoid closing schools and businesses, but personal mobility and leisure will be curtailed.
Johnson is facing the second wave with his political credibility greatly impaired, and challenged by a lack of coordination with the most affected local authorities, but the scientific community urges him not to make the same mistake as in Spring. “We are facing the need to make the same decisions as in early March. The longer we take to implement them, the harder and more drastic the required interventions will be to change the course of this pandemic,” said Jeremy Farrar, a member of SAGE, the committee of scientists and experts that since the first minute of the crisis has advised Downing Street.
Ireland reported 1,012 new cases of Covid-19 on Saturday, the highest daily figure since April and representing a peak – over the past seven days an average of 523 cases have been recorded – which is a cause of concern to authorities. “I’m very concerned about the numbers we’re seeing and how fast they’re worsening,” said Tony Holohan, chief medical advisor to the Irish government, according to The Irish Times.
Holohan stressed the positivity, i.e. the percentage of tests conducted that are coming back positive. In just one week this rate doubled to 6.2 percent, above the three percent that the ECDC starts to consider alarming, but far from the positivity of Spanish regions like Madrid, Murcia, Castile-La Mancha and Castile-Leon, which stand at around 15 percent.
France has broken the absolute record for new cases in 24 hours last week: over 18,000 on Wednesday and Thursday and 20,339 on Friday. The positivity rate at the national level is also “high,” at 10.4 percent, according to the Ministry of Health.
More than 1,400 patients are in intensive care units in a country where before the pandemic the initial reanimation capacity stood at 5,000 beds. The president of the scientific council established by the French government, Jean-François Delfraissy, alerted this Friday that the coronavirus health crisis will endure until mid next year and that it is necessary to prepare for “six very difficult months”.
Source: El País