Study attributes Brazil’s failure in the pandemic largely to the federal government

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil has failed to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic due to a set of shortcomings and omissions by public managers, with the federal government having a greater weight in the blame. These are the conclusions of a study published on Wednesday, April 14th, in the prestigious Science magazine.

Led by Brazilian demographer Márcia Castro from Harvard University’s School of Public Health, the research is signed by 10 U.S. and Brazilian scientists, who try to explain how a country with a universal and free health system (SUS) managed to become one of the most affected by the crisis.

Using daily data of cases and deaths provided by the state health secretariats, the group conducted a detailed mapping of the spread of the coronavirus in the country between February and October last year, the first phase of the epidemic, and found a variation in patterns among states and municipalities that reflects the diversity of policies to fight Covid-19 – or their absence.

The research states that, “while no single narrative explains the diversity in spread, a general failure to implement prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of strong local inequalities fueled the spread of the disease.”

The scientists reiterate that the conduct of President Jair Bolsonaro’s government has a proportionally much greater weight in the chaotic scenario generated by the pandemic – a conduct that has been marked not only by omissions, but by irregular acts such as the promotion of ineffective cures.

“In Brazil, the federal response has been a dangerous combination of inaction and irregularities, including the promotion of chloroquine as a treatment, despite the lack of evidence,” the study says. “Without a coordinated national strategy, local responses have varied in form, intensity, duration and start and end times, to some extent associated with political alignments.”

According to the researchers, this lack of coordination in the adoption of measures by regional governments – attributed to the Bolsonaro government’s failure to implement a national strategy – only contributed to the virus spreading unhindered across the country.

“As states and municipalities imposed and relaxed restrictive measures at different times, population mobility facilitated the circulation of the virus and acted as a trigger for the spread of the disease,” the study notes.

When comparing infections and deaths figures recorded between February and October with the policies to restrict the movement of people adopted by public managers, the researchers observed that these measures remained moderate or were relaxed in the midst of a critical phase of the pandemic, when stricter measures were required.

The study also states that the political alignment between governors and the president – who always downplayed the pandemic and attacked the adoption of lockdowns – played an important role in the implementation or otherwise of distancing measures in the states. According to the scientists, this “polarization politicized the pandemic” and undermined the population’s adherence to the measures.

Other factors

The research also mentions other factors that contributed to the severity of the epidemic, such as the vast territory and the profound inequality observed in the country, with many disparities in the quantity and quality of resources available for health in each region.

The text also states that the dense urban network that connects the municipalities through transportation, services, and businesses was not fully interrupted during the peaks of cases and deaths, which facilitated the spread of the virus.

The group also notes that the coronavirus was already circulating undetected for at least a month before the first diagnosis, “a result of the lack of well-structured genomic monitoring.”

Alert

Finally, the study recalls that Brazil is currently experiencing the worst moment of the pandemic, with record numbers of cases and deaths and on the verge of a hospital system collapse, and makes an alert in favor of the immediate adoption of a coordinated national response.

“In such a scenario, immediate and equitable responses, coordinated at the federal level, are imperative to prevent the rapid spread of the virus,” the researchers reiterate, recalling that the P.1 variant, first detected in Manaus and more contagious, adds an aggravating factor to the chaotic situation in the country.

“Failure to prevent this new round of spread will ease the emergence of new VOCs [variants of concern], isolate Brazil as a threat to global health security, and lead to a completely preventable humanitarian crisis,” they warn.

Pandemic CPI

The study was published the same week that the Senate is preparing a parliamentary commission of inquiry (CPI) to investigate the Bolsonaro government’s actions and potential omissions during the coronavirus crisis, which has killed more than 361,000 Brazilians in just over a year.

The CPI comes at a difficult time for the president, faced with a chaotic economic scenario, a never-ending health crisis, declining popularity ratings and a tumultuous relationship with his newly expanded base of support in Congress.

In a little more than a year of pandemic, the government has been notable in minimizing the danger of the virus, sabotaging social distancing measures, promoting ineffective cures, failing to articulate a national confrontation policy, as well as promoting unfounded theses about purported vaccine risks and demonstrating disinterest in securing immunogens for the population.

A March Datafolha poll showed that 54% of Brazilians disapprove of Bolsonaro’s performance in the pandemic, while only 22% approve. The country is also experiencing consecutive records in the daily counts of deaths and infections.

Source: DW