RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - The coronavirus pandemic could affect the economy for decades if past patterns serve as a guide, according to researchers who have drawn on data dating back to the 14th century.
In a study of 12 significant pandemics as well as armed conflict, economists Oscar Jorda, Sanjay Singh and Alan Taylor of the University of California at Davis concluded that pandemics reduce real interest rates, lead to small increases in real wages and weigh down investment.
Real wages show a slight increase due to labor shortages, they said, and lower real interest rates allow fiscal room for . . .